The piece looked at the use of horses in society as a whole but included some strong criticism of racing, including on our welfare record, breeding practices and relevance overall.

Prior to publication, the BHA was approached for comment and we provided a detailed response that sought to bring balance to the piece. Our goal in doing so was not only to give context to the figures and explain what racing has done to reduce avoidable risk but to make sure that the hard work of the many thousands of people who provide outstanding care to our horses every day was recognised and respected.

To provide additional context, we were approached by the Daily Telegraph to respond to comments it had obtained from Animal Aid in which inaccurate claims about breeding and horseracing in Britain were made.

The BHA has never sought to stifle debate on this topic and respects the fact that others will view the role of horses in sport and society differently from us. The sport has demonstrated through the HorsePWR campaign its willingness to meet questions in a spirit of openness and transparency. All of this was made clear to the Daily Telegraph, with our request simply being that we were afforded a fair chance to state our case.

Unfortunately, only one line of our detailed response was included in the piece and our follow-up requests that the Daily Telegraph article should be more accurate, balanced and more accurately reflect our position 鈥� as is demanded across print media by the industry鈥檚 own code of practice – 聽went ignored following the article鈥檚 publication on Thursday. We have escalated this with senior figures at the Daily Telegraph. In particular we have reminded the paper of its obligations under Clause 1 of the Editors鈥� Code of Practice.

Given the Daily Telegraph has ignored our requests to amend the piece, we have taken the decision to publish our response in full, so that people can see for themselves how the BHA responded on racing鈥檚 behalf, and what the sport is doing to provide the best possible lives for horses in training in Britain.

Comment provided to the Daily Telegraph

鈥淣othing is more important to all who work in British racing than the welfare of horses bred to race.聽 Our sport gives these athletes purpose, an unparalleled quality of life and world-class care that allows them to maximise their potential.

鈥淚n January 2022, British racing introduced a rule that all racehorses that run in Great Britain must be signed out of the food chain, meaning that they cannot legally be sold for slaughter to abattoirs domestically or internationally. It is therefore categorically untrue to say that many British thoroughbreds are slaughtered for meat.

鈥淲hen discussing horse welfare, everyone has a responsibility to use facts not misinformation. This is why racing launched a dedicated hub, , which brings together the data for all to see and study. Racing has worked tirelessly for decades to improve welfare standards in the sport and will continue to do so to ensure our sport remains a global leader in the field. We work actively with recognised animal welfare charities such as World Horse Welfare and RSPCA to ensure we are held to the highest possible standards.

鈥淗orses bred for racing in Britain enjoy the highest welfare standards during their racing career and their high health status and mental development through their training makes them outstanding candidates to go on to numerous other pursuits when they leave the sport.

鈥淏ritish racing鈥檚 commitment to horses extends far beyond the track. Each year around 2,500 horses retire from the sport permanently. And of the estimated 33,600 former racehorses in Britain, over 40% are members of the sport鈥檚 dedicated aftercare charity, Retraining of Racehorses (RoR). This is a thriving community with horses excelling across a wide range of new careers. We have the ambition to achieve 100 per cent traceability of horses when they leave racing which will allow us to best tailor any support that might be needed. As part of this work, racing鈥檚 Horse Welfare Board launched the country鈥檚 first Thoroughbred Census last year with Hartpury University. This census data allows us to say with confidence that around 80 per cent of thoroughbreds in this country are identifiable and active in their lives after racing, with work now underway to close this gap even further.鈥�

To measure the effectiveness of these changes, 12 targets were agreed with the Horserace Betting Levy Board (HBLB) and published. Reviews of these will be undertaken on a quarterly basis by the industry鈥檚 Commercial Committee prior to consideration by the BHA Board, in order to track the impact of the initiatives, and in some cases so that necessary adjustments can be applied across the course of the two years.

A detailed review of the first quarter of 2024 has now taken place and the following blog will outline the overall performance of the racing product.

Please note: Where possible, specifically in sporting performance, viewing figures and racecourse attendance, analysis also includes the month of April. This is not possible for betting data, which is received later than these other data sets.

It is very important to stress that it is early days into the two-year trial to be reporting on numbers. Moreover, the period under review was beset by wet weather and a relatively high level of abandonments, including of some key meetings and races. It will be possible to form a more reliable view of how things are progressing once we get to the end of June and have data for the first half of the year.

The Targets

The agreed targets comprised a combination of measures, some of which were specific to 2024 and others which covered the entirety of the two-year trial period.

At this stage, it is possible to update on nine of the 12, with three of the targets being based around longer-term timescales.

The remaining nine targets can be assessed based on the four criteria of betting performance, sporting performance, viewing (those watching via streams, racing broadcasts or in betting shops) and racecourse attendance.

When assessing each of these it is, as stated upon publication of the targets last year, important that the data is viewed with some caution. Small sample sizes such as the first quarter of a two-year trial period can deliver perceived short-term wins and losses and therefore all should be considered in this context.

Sporting performance

It will come as news to nobody that the aforementioned wet start to 2024 has had an impact on our racing product for this period.

A total of 2,907 races were run up to 30 April this year, 42 fewer than the same period in 2023. This comprises 94 more Flat races and 136 fewer Jumps fixtures.

Turning to the specific targets, the first in this area relates to prize money at Premier fixtures, specifically that it should increase by 拢6-7m in 2024, and for total prize money at the remainder of the fixture list to return to close to their current levels by 2025.

Progress towards this target is on track following the first quarter of 2024, with total prize money 拢1 million higher than in 2023, with Premier meetings 拢3.2 million higher and core fixtures 拢2.2 million lower.

As far as race competitiveness is concerned, the weather has had an impact over the Jumps, where nearly all measures of competitiveness are tracking below 2021 and 2023 but ahead of 2022, almost certainly as a consequence of the wet weather and associated ground conditions. In all, 71% of Jumps races have been run on soft ground or softer, as opposed to 43% last year, 36% in 2022 and 39% in 2023.

Flat meetings, however, have performed comparatively well so far this year. Competitiveness at Flat Premier meetings is running at a four-year high for average field size, percentage of races with eight or more runners and the percentage of races with odds-against favourites. At Flat core fixtures, 70% of races have had at least eight runners, also a four-year high.

As a result, we are partially on track to meet three of the published targets, namely:

• To grow average field sizes at Premier and core fixtures in 2024, both Flat and Jump, compared with 2023;
• To grow the percentage of races with 8+ runners at Premier and Core fixtures in 2024, both Flat and Jump, compared with 2023 and;
• To grow the percentage of races with an odds-against favourite at Premier and Core fixtures in 2024, both Flat and Jump, compared with 2023.

For each of the above, Premier and Core Jumps fixtures have yet to meet the targets.

Betting performance

Two of the analysed targets relate to betting performance. They are:

• Total betting turnover on Sunday evening fixtures to outperform midweek floodlit fixtures by 15 to 20% and;
• Slowing the decline in betting across the entire fixture list compared with 2023, with Premier Fixtures showing 1 to 2% better relative performance than the remainder of the fixture list.

As has already been publicised, the first targets, linked to the six-meeting trial of Sunday evening meetings, was not achieved and an update regarding that pilot was issued last month.

The second of the targets requires some context to consider in full, and can be said to be somewhat on track to being achieved. The impact of affordability checks and the challenging economic climate have contributed towards betting on racing having been in decline for some time and that trend has continued from January to March, when total betting turnover dropped by 5.9%. More positively, the betting companies report that the number of active bettors are up, in particular on Saturdays.

It is too early to be reaching any strong conclusions on betting numbers but, removing the effect of the Cheltenham Festival, Premier Racedays are outperforming betting on the rest of the fixture list; the decline at Premier Fixtures was 2.7%, compared with 5.2% across Core meetings.

The introduction of Premier Raceday fixtures on Sundays has seen a particularly strong start, with betting turnover per race at these meetings 21.3% higher compared to equivalent fixtures in 2023.

Racecourse attendances

As has been well documented elsewhere, attendance at racecourses remains a challenge for the industry. A total of 409 completed fixtures took place up to 30 April, down ten (2.4%) from the same period in 2023, with total attendances 6.4% lower than that same period in 2023.

Premier Racedays have performed slightly better, being down 4.5%, especially on Saturdays, where the decrease is 2%. This does, however, mean that we are not on track at this point against one of the targets, which was to halt the decline in total attendance at Premier Fixtures in 2024 and then increasing them by 5 to 10% in 2025 versus 2023.

Saturdays as a whole have seen attendances down 32,000 on the first four months of the year but this has undoubtedly been impacted by abandonments and, with Premier meetings holding up reasonably well, we remain on track to hit the target of having Saturday attendances largely having recovered by 2025.

Core meetings have seen a greater decline of 7.7% but have suffered more as a result of abandonments.

The three Saturday fixtures moved out of the day鈥檚 protected window have shown mixed results compared to the same fixture in 2023. At Thirsk, the crowd was slightly up by 2%, Yarmouth saw a drop of 10% and Ripon lost 44%, approximately 2,000 people. There are a number of factors that can contribute to this and it is too early at this stage to properly assess the impact of these moves. We will continue to monitor this as the trial progresses.

Viewing figures

In Q1 of 2024, ITV Racing鈥檚 average audience increased by 11% year on year in to 514,000, with a small increase in audience share over the same period.

Whilst this is good news, this performance is behind that achieved in Q1 2022 (average audience 552,000) and reflects a levelling out of wider linear TV audience trends for live sport, which began to be seen in Q4 2023.

A published target, which recognised the impact on those streaming, watching the racing channels or for customers in betting shops, was to reduce the number of clashing races (defined as a British or Irish race running into a British race) on Saturday afternoons (up to 5pm) in 2024 from over 8% to 5%.

While the number of clashes has reduced, from 10.4% to 8.8% in the first period of 2024, there remains work to be done to meet this target.

Next steps

Overall, these figures demonstrate the scale of the work still to be done in order to ensure racing is performing as best as it can, with the best horses racing on our biggest racedays and engaging the public more than we are currently.

It is important to keep in mind that these figures represent only the first quarter of the first year of a two-year trial of a package of initiatives There is still a long way to go and not every quarter of these two years will see, for example, the kind of challenging weather conditions we have seen in Q1.

The picture will become clearer as we progress through 2024. When the first half of the year is considered as a whole, there we be more we can say with some degree of certainty about the performance of the racing product and what tweaks may or may not be needed to maximise the trial period.

We will report on the first half of the year later in the summer.

Summary of progress against targets

Target 2

Total betting turnover on Sunday evening fixtures to outperform midweek (Tuesday to Thursday) floodlit fixtures by 15 to 20%.

Not achieved聽– Total digital turnover averaged 3.6% higher than midweek floodlit fixtures across the six fixtures.

Target 3

Slowing the decline in betting across the entire fixture list compared with 2023, with Premier Fixtures showing 1-2% better relative performance than the remainder of the fixture list.

On track if excluding impact of the Cheltenham Festival聽– Premier (excluding Cheltenham Festival) down 2.7% compared with Core down 5.2%.

Target 4

To halt the decline in total attendances at Premier Fixtures in 2024, and then increasing by 5-10% in 2025 versus 2023.

Not on track聽– Total attendances at Premier Fixtures staged in both 2023 and 2024 were 561k in 2024 (down 4.5%).

Target 5

For Saturday attendances to have largely recovered by 2025.

On track聽– Saturdays down 32k first 4 months but impacted by abandonments and Premier holding up well compared to rest of fixtures.

Target 6

Recognising the impact on those streaming, watching the racing channels or for customers in betting shop, the target is to reduce the number of clashing races (defined as a British or Irish race running into a British race) on Saturdays afternoons (up to5pm) in 2024 from over 8% to 5%.

Not on track聽– Year to date, the number of clashes on Saturday afternoon has fallen from 10.4% to 8.8% of all races.

Target 9

Total prize money at Premier Fixtures to increase by 拢6-7m in 2024 and for total prize money at the remainder of the fixturelist to return to close to their current levels by 2025.

On track聽– Total prize money at Premier Fixtures increased by 拢3.2m.

Target 10

To grow average field sizes at Premier and Core fixtures in 2024, both Flat and Jump, compared with 2023.

Partially on track – Achieved: Flat Premier. Not Achieved: Flat Core, Jump Premier, Jump Core.

Target 11

To grow the percentage of races with 8+ runners at Premier and Core fixtures in 2024, both Flat and Jump, compared with 2023.

Partially on track – Achieved: Flat Premier, Flat Core. Not Achieved: Jump Premier, Jump Core.

Target 12

To grow the percentage of races with an odds-against favourite at Premier and Core fixtures in 2024, both Flat and Jump, compared with 2023.

Partially on track – Achieved: Flat Premier. Not Achieved: Flat Core, Jump Premier, Jump Core.

One of the main areas of study was to look at the distribution of all ratings across both the hurdle and chase files and the results are displayed below. The titles of each graph are self explanatory, whilst I have also included the distribution of 3yo+ within the flat ratings file for comparison.

Taking both the chase file (above) and the hurdle file (below) and comparing the average ratings of the seasons covering 2008-2011 against the seasons covering 2018-2021, it is clear to see that there has been a change in the distribution within certain areas of both files 鈥� in short, there has been an upward movement of the horses located in the middle part of the files, causing the 鈥渂ulge鈥� to move higher up the ratings scale.

This, of course, largely represents the area where the younger, progressive horses who are working their way up the ratings file coincide with the older, regressive horses who are starting to work their way in the opposite direction

In contrast, the distribution of the 3yo+ within the flat file has a much more statistically acceptable shape to it 鈥� from middle to bottom rather than middle to top as in the jumps files.

After discussions within the Handicapping team and other involved parties within the BHA, the decision has been made to address this issue basing the process on the analysis provided. The objective being to get the file distribution back to where it was (or close to where it was) during the 2008鈥�2011 period – it was then a case of deciding how.

Three options were considered:

1. A manual review of ratings to take place during the quieter two weeks of August when there was minimal Summer Jumping 鈥� having seen the number of horses involved (over 4,000) and the disruption it would cause to results and entries during this period it was discarded
2. An automated review done by computer on a given date 鈥� this, however, largely took away ownership and responsibility from the Handicappers and it was felt it may throw up inconsistencies
3. An organic process in which the handicapping team made subtle changes to certain areas of their methodology to meet the required objective by an agreed date.

After much debate we have decided to go with option 3 which has two major advantages over the others:

• It causes minimal disruption to the day to day running of jumps racing
• It allows the handicappers to take responsibility and be able to justify every amendment made

There will be no 鈥渟eismic鈥� change in handicapping methodology 鈥� the basics (recent form, relativity between horses, profile, success rates, etc) will stay in place but the following actions will also be followed:

• More generous drops where appropriate for older/regressive/ non-winning horses 鈥� this will entail certain 1-2lb drops becoming a 2-3lb drop, 2-3lb drops becoming a 3-4lb drop and so on.
• Based on the analysis provided, start certain sections of the novice hurdle division on lower opening marks (final details to be confirmed)
• Recalculate BHA Race Standards where appropriate
• Take horses off the ratings file who haven鈥檛 run for 6 months rather than the current 9 months – thus allowing the handicapper to assess their handicap mark when entered.
• More rigorous 鈥渂ack handicapping鈥�

To help facilitate the above the handicappers will:

• Use an analysis based list of horses, drawn up when we were considering an automated review, as a guide but with human input.
• More rigorous file analysis on a more regular basis, both flat and jumps, to make sure stability is maintained.
• Look into the possibility of an annual analytical review of the file during August in readiness for the new season

We have set ourselves a target date of January 1^st 2022 to complete this process and progress will be monitored on a weekly basis involving a number of analytics 鈥� this will obviously allow us to make sure we stay on track over the coming months to achieve our objectives by that date

With Love (third) running below her best at 111 and the gamble to raise Sussex Stakes winner Alcohol Free (sixth at 107) up in trip failing to pay off, holes could be picked in the form of those behind the Gosden-trained colt. However, Mohaafeth (fourth) running to his pre-race rating of 112 gives the form solidity, suggesting his stable companion Alenquer has improved to 115 (from 110) in finishing second.

In terms of historical comparisons with other recent winners of the race, Mishriff鈥檚 performance reads well 鈥� it is considered on a par with Roaring Lion鈥檚 success in 2018 and inferior only to the impressive trio of Ghaiyyath (130 in 2020), Frankel (140 in 2012) and Sea The Stars (129 in 2009).

In light of the York result, 12f handicapper Mark Olley and I did discuss the possibility of revisiting the King George form and the mark of Adayar. Given the different trip at York and the fact that whilst Mishriff had given the form a boost, Love hadn鈥檛, we decided we were comfortable with having Mishriff and Adayar on the same rating for the time being and opted not to move the level of the King George.

Oaks hat-trick for dominant Snowfall

The Group 1 Darley Yorkshire Oaks looked a match between Snowfall and Wonderful Tonight both on pre-race ratings and in the betting, writes Mark Olley.

Snowfall had run away with both the English and Irish Oaks, winning by a combined margin of 24.5 lengths, and while she is clearly a cut above the three-year-old fillies this promised to be a real test against the high-class four-year-old Wonderful Tonight.

Unfortunately, the expected clash didn鈥檛 really materialise as Wonderful Tonight found the ground too quick and didn鈥檛 show her true form. David Menuisier鈥檚 filly clearly relishes soft ground and I鈥檓 sure she will bounce back when encountering her favoured conditions.

Her underperformance left the race at Snowfall鈥檚 mercy and she didn鈥檛 disappoint, travelling supremely well and coming clear under a hands-and-heels ride, value for at least a six-seven length win. Her official rating, published in Ireland, remains unchanged on 120 and I can鈥檛 wait to see her properly tested to see what she is truly capable of.

Albaflora stayed on into a respectful second. This was her best run since landing the Listed Buckhounds Stakes at Ascot back in May and her rating moves back up to 110 (+2).

Winter powers to Nunthorpe success

The Group 1 Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes saw a dazzling display of speed from Winter Power, writes Chris Nash.

The Tim Easterby-trained filly was able to sit closest to the trailblazing US raider Golden Pal. She went past him around two furlongs out, had a gap on the field at the furlong marker and was able to see it home from there, finishing one-and-a-quarter lengths clear of Emaraaty Ana, with a further half-length back to Dragon Symbol in third. The favourite and highest rated pre-race, Suesa, finished a further three-quarters of a length away in fourth

The last ten winners of the Nunthorpe range from 116 (Ortensia in 2012 and Alpha Delphini in 2018) to 126 (Battaash in 2019) and race standards suggest a figure in the range of 115-118 for Winter Power. I鈥檝e rated her 117 which represents further improvement for a filly who started in nurseries off just 76 last year and has won seven of her eleven races since. Her last three wins have been over this course and distance and she looks like a filly that will be best suited by sharp tests at the minimum trip.

This assessment of the race has Emaraaty Ana running to a figure of 115, which is also a career best for him 鈥� he arrived here rated 107 but had been as high as 112 as a two-year-old. Dragon Symbol managed to reverse form with Suesa from Goodwood where they had finished first and second in the Group 2 King George Stakes. Suesa won that race by three lengths and recorded a figure of 119 in that impressive display. She has only run to a figure of 108+ this time but had a fair bit to do at halfway having been dropped out and made good late gains. I鈥檇 be inclined to forgive her this lesser effort and give her another chance to confirm the good impression that she made at Goodwood.  

Sonnyboyliston fights his way to Ebor glory

Saturday鈥檚 valuable Sky Bet Ebor Handicap attracted its usual high-quality field of stayers, and the form is sure to be informative with regards to other big handicaps and Group races in the months ahead, writes Adam Barnes.

As it turned out it was actually a Group race that proved to be key to this year鈥檚 Ebor, with the Group 3 John Smith鈥檚 Silver Cup run over the same course and distance last month producing five of the first seven runners home.

Johnny Murtagh鈥檚 Irish raider Sonnyboyliston was the one to emerge on top, seemingly better suited to the bigger field and stronger pace than he had encountered here last time. He has been assessed as running to a figure of 113 (+5), and now apparently has targets such as the Irish St Leger and Melbourne Cup on his agenda. Progressive runner-up Quickthorn (up 4 lb to 107) ran a cracker in defeat, and he also looks likely to make his mark in Group contests in the future.

While the Ebor might have been considered the big one at York on Saturday, I have to admit that I鈥檓 personally more of a Melrose man. A massive field of unexposed, up-and-coming three-year-olds, many only just now getting the opportunity to express themselves over a longer distance, really gets the juices flowing, and this year鈥檚 renewal proved to be a great spectacle.

Despite the busy finish between the first five home, the distances back to sixth and seventh in this deep field suggests those first five are all a good bit ahead of their marks, and as such I鈥檝e taken a positive view of the form. The Andrew Balding-trained winner Valley Forge goes up 7 lb to 90, and the notably smooth way he moved through this contest suggests there could be a good bit more to come. Hopefully we see him back here in the big one next year 鈥� this win gains him automatic entry into the 2022 Ebor.

You don鈥檛 necessarily need big fields to produce exciting races, as evidenced by Friday鈥檚 four-runner Group 2 Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup, which witnessed a sustained, pulsating battle between Stradivarius and Spanish Mission.

After his fourth-placed finish in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot it鈥檚 fair to say that Stradivarius arrived at York with a slight point to prove, and in showing a fine attitude to narrowly reverse Ascot form with Spanish Mission he proved that he retains the great majority of his plentiful ability. While it was a fantastic race to watch, it didn鈥檛 really tell us anything new in terms of form, and as such the pre-race ratings of both Stradivarius (121) and Spanish Mission (117) remain unchanged.

Lusail takes top juvenile honours on the Knavesmire

A lot can happen in a week. There were four pattern races in Britain alone in the juvenile division and further high-class contests in France and Ireland. Here鈥檚 my round-up, writes Graeme Smith.

By my reckoning, the best juvenile performance on the Knavesmire came from Lusail in the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes. His July Stakes success had been endorsed by Asymmetic in the Richmond (he also ran third in the Group 1 Prix Morny on Sunday this week) and then Ebro River in the Group 1 Phoenix, and Richard Hannon鈥檚 colt defied a 3lb-penalty at York in clear-cut fashion.

The Coventry winner Berkshire Shadow clearly didn鈥檛 give his running, with the drop in trip almost certainly against him, while the likes of Gis A Sub and Twilight Jet didn鈥檛 quite have the form pre-race to predict their second and third place finishes. It鈥檚 still relatively early days in their careers, however, and this is where historical standards come in 鈥� a useful tool when proven form is in scarce supply.

Standards suggested a figure of 114/115 for Lusail but given minor doubts about the placed horses and the fact the time only pointed to around 107, I reined back slightly to a figure of 113. Nevertheless, that rating still places Lusail in the upper echelons of the division so far.

Incidentally, I still have Atomic Force ahead of him among the sprinters. The excellent run of Hellomydarlin (up 4 lb to 102) under top weight in the nursery at York 鈥� along with Who Knows鈥� Group 3 success at Deauville 鈥� made a strong case for raising my initial view of the Robert Papin from Chantilly last month. Atomic Force now figures on 114.

Sandrine had looked the best of the two-year-old fillies in Britain prior to the Sky Bet Lowther, and she emerged as the equal of Zain Claudette under a 3-lb penalty despite having to give best to that rival. Zain Claudette is on an upward trajectory and undoubtedly stepped forward again from her Princess Margaret success. She鈥檚 now rated 108 鈥� just an average winner of the Lowther at this stage 鈥� but that鈥檚 still higher than the 106 Fairyland was rated after winning this in 2018 before she went on to add the Cheveley Park. Incidentally, the average winning performance in the Cheveley Park in the last 5 years is 114.

Sandrine鈥檚 Duchess of Cambridge success has taken a few knocks and I鈥檝e dropped her rating 1 lb to 108. That figure had leaned on historical standards at the time and it鈥檚 always important to go back and adjust these races as subsequent evidence emerges.

Royal Patronage put some well-touted rivals in the shade in the Tattersalls Acomb Stakes on the first day of the meeting. Mark Johnston鈥檚 son of Wootton Bassett had improved significantly under a positive ride at Epsom the time before and 鈥� more streetwise than the opposition 鈥� he repeated the dose to win by upwards of two and a quarter-lengths in a time that suggests a rating of 108 could prove on the low side in time. He looks just the sort to head for the Champagne or Royal Lodge next.

Saying that, the best 7f juvenile performance in Britain on my figures came away from York and from a horse who could well be headline news in future in the shape of Reach For The Moon. He鈥檒l be bidding to provide classic success for Her Majesty The Queen in her Platinum Jubilee year in 2022 and things are going rather well at this stage.

There had been several strong pointers from his four-length success at Newbury last month, not least when Harrow (up 11 lb to 95) won a very competitive nursery at York, and he blew the Betway Solario Stakes field away by upwards of four lengths without Dettori having to get overly serious. Again, it鈥檚 hard to be dogmatic about the level given the lightly raced profiles of those involved, while the lack of an end-to-end gallop makes time analysis more difficult, but standards suggest his new figure of 114 is by no means a leap of faith.

There is still the small matter of Point Lonsdale for Reach For The Moon to worry about, however. Point Lonsdale had got the better of Reach For The Moon in the Chesham (pair clear) and took his record to four wins from as many starts when beating Maritime Wings more decisively than in the Tyros when winning the Futurity at the Curragh on Saturday. His rating is a matter for the Irish handicapper, but I still have him half a length ahead of Reach For The Moon around 115.

Incidentally, the Debutante, also run at the Curragh on Saturday, is usually an excellent pointer to the fillies鈥� Group 1 races and Agartha鈥檚 time stands up against what Point Lonsdale achieved. Again, the Irish handicapper will decide on her rating, but my current thinking would have her top of the fillies鈥� division as things stand.

After a tepid first couple of days for the Mullins鈥� team they arrived with a bang on the Thursday with the undoubted highlight being Nichols Canyon鈥檚 success in the Sun Bets Stayers鈥� Hurdle, writes Martin Greenwood.

Mostly unraced beyond 20f (a 3m race in the USA notwithstanding), Nichols Canyon relished the true stamina test set by previous winner Cole Harden (nearly back to very best on 161).聽 He cut through the field to lead on the run in and deny the gallant Lil Rockerfeller with hot favourite Unowhatimeanharry, unbeaten for his new stable, in third.

Whichever way you cut this particular cake, personal bests have surely been achieved by the first two here. Five-year standards suggest anything from low to high 160s while the time comparison with the Pertemps suggest a mighty 192. Settling on 169 and 168 for the first two we have performances on a level with More of That in 2014 which is the best since the Big Buck鈥檚 years other than Thistlecrack鈥檚 supreme effort last year.

With Aintree, Fairyhouse and Punchestown still to come, the picture could change again and Unowhatimeanharry is probably worth another chance to enhance his reputation. While only marginally below his pre-race rating of 167 here, he simply did not pick up in the usual manner after travelling into the race as well as any. Connections suggested the faster ground may have been a factor but he still looked a horse that was improving before the Festival and he has probably not flattened out just yet.

Both the novice races in my division look up to standard. It was nearly a great start ratings-wise, a 1-2-3 was only narrowly denied probably, but not definitely, by Neon Wolf鈥檚 (pre-race 148) sprawl at the last.聽 This allowed pacemaker Willoughby Court (147) to gain an advantage before nearly throwing that away by hanging across the track. It seems logical to rate the pair the same at this point and I have settled on 150 which is only slightly below the average and median suggested by 5yr standards.

The time comparison with the Coral Cup only suggests 142; but that is surely down to the pace of this race. Messire des Obeaux (pre-race 146 and unchanged) ran a fine race in third especially given he did not get the same kind of smooth run through afforded to the first two. Another runner worth a mention is Keeper Hill who stayed on well after making a bad mid-race blunder.

Almost certainly showing better form was Penhill, who won the three miler on the Friday. Unusually this race was not run at the normal suicidal gallop; but even so the extra stamina found out hot favourite Death Duty who was cooked well before he came down at the last. He probably deserves another chance.

Penhill is now 153 with runner up Monalee also achieving a personal best on 149 which puts Penhill number two in the novice stayers list with only West Approach (surprisingly targeted to the Stayers hurdle) in front of him in the division. Constantine Bay shaped very well considering he was badly hampered when The Worlds End came down at the second last.聽 The latter would almost certainly been involved in the finish had he stood up and looks to have a big future.

Sceaux takes wings for the Ryanair

The Grade 1 Ryanair Chase was not a vintage renewal, writes Mark Olley, but it was hard not to be impressed by Un de Sceaux鈥檚 superb winning performance.

Ruby Walsh freely admits that Un de Sceaux ran away with him to take up the running at the fifth but he jumped superbly and was dominant, much more so than the winning margin of one and a half lengths suggests. Going into the race there were questions regarding both trip and ground but Willie Mullins鈥� gelding answered them in style.

Sub Lieutenant came into the race with an Anglo-Irish agreed provisional rating of 161 (a figure agreed with Irish handicapper Noel O鈥橞rien at our meeting in February). However, his published handicap rating in Ireland is 162 and, as that fits with race standards, I am happy to have him running to that here.

I have settled on a figure of 5lb for the winning margin of one and a half lengths. Un de Sceaux was around five lengths clear at the last and, although kept up to his work on the run-in, he was eased close home. As I mentioned previously I thought his performance was dominant and I am not certain 5lb is a true reflection of how superior he was; but it is hard to justify more. It is currently academic as his official Irish rating is higher and will be finalised at the end of term Anglo-Irish meeting in May.

Aso ran the race of his life in third and his rating goes up from 152 to 156 while Empire of Dirt found everything happening a little too quickly for him and a return to 3m looks sure to suit.

From an historical point of view four of the last five winners posted higher figures with last year鈥檚 winner Vautour the best on 173. Dynaste鈥檚 164 in 2014 is the one that is lower.

The Grade 1 JLT Golden Miller Novices鈥� Chase was a thriller and produced a potential star of the future in Yorkhill. He is far from a straightforward ride but this is the type of horse on which Ruby Walsh excels.

Disko has an Anglo-Irish agreed rating of 154 and, as this fits in with race standards, I am happy to leave it unchanged. This ground was considerably faster than anything he has previously raced on but he appeared to handle it well enough.

Top Notch ran an excellent race but a mistake at the second last may well have cost him his winning chance. He came into the fence disputing the lead but lost around two lengths and, despite staying on strongly up the run-in, never quite looked like getting to the winner. He lost more ground than he was eventually beaten; but I think Yorkhill idled and the result was a fair reflection. Top Notch was a 158 hurdler at best and I have moved his chase rating to that figure, up 6lb from 152.

Yorkhill idled and I have him running to 160 but this figure has yet to be agreed with Irish handicapper Noel O鈥橞rien so is open to change. Excluding Vautour鈥檚 stellar performance of 171 when winning in 2015 this is the next best performance of the last five years and eclipses the 159 figures of Black Hercules last year and Taquin du Seuil in 2014.

Tiara lifts the crown

Douvan鈥檚 mishap meant it did not need a division-topping performance to lift the Betway Champion Chase but Special Tiara put up a fantastic one nevertheless as he made just about every yard, writes Graeme Smith.

Henry de Bromhead鈥檚 ten-year-old had been third in the last two runnings of the Champion and made no mistake with the favourite鈥檚 below-par showing having left the door ajar.

I鈥檒l discuss sectional times in more depth when touching on Altior鈥檚 Arkle later in the piece, but their significance here is in showing that Special Tiara was anything but allowed an easy time in front. Indeed in seeing off early pressure from both Douvan and Garde La Victoire he set a really good gallop and, aided by some brilliantly fluent jumping, he held the late challenge of Fox Norton all out.

Special Tiara had been awarded 168 in each of the last two Anglo-Irish Classifications and looked very much back to his best here.聽 Basing the race around the form of others (including in handicaps) I feel he ran to 167 on the day. Going back to 2007 that figure is the joint lowest winning performance in recent history along with Dodging Bullets but that is unlikely to worry his connections one bit.

Fox Norton was back on song after a slight dip at Newbury and ran to his best of 166 鈥� I鈥檝e revised our level on the Shloer from 167. In an ideal world he鈥檇 have met the third last on a better stride which might have given him a better platform for his late surge; but I would stop short of calling him unlucky bearing in mind how hard Special Tiara had gone.

The Tom George pair of Sir Valentino and God鈥檚 Own looked Special Tiara鈥檚 main rivals going to the second last. Unfortunately God鈥檚 Own made his second major mistake at that fence and ended up fading into fifth.聽 Rated 165, he should still give a good account at Aintree and Punchestown having won at both fixtures last spring. Sir Valentino has really stepped up this season and now has three solid 160 performances to his name with this Grade 1 third representing his biggest achievement to date.

Top Gamble and Traffic Fluide ran with credit as they stayed on into fourth and sixth. Personally I feel their late progress may flatter them a shade, however, given they were unable to go with the principals from the top of the hill.

This time last year Douvan had just added the Racing Post Arkle to his Supreme Novices鈥� Hurdle success without having to show his best form, and now the very exciting Altior is in exactly the same boat. Some watchers were left deflated by the fact he was off the bridle in second when handed the race by Charbel鈥檚 departure at the second last; but study of the sectional times offers more than a little mitigation.

Going by my hand times, the Arkle was run in a time around half a second faster than the following day鈥檚 Champion Chase under very similar conditions. However, while Special Tiara鈥檚 race was run at a strong gallop, Charbel was very much allowed his own way in front and dictated a pace that saw him reach the third last fence some 4.5 seconds or 20L slower than Special Tiara had.

The fact the Arkle field had enough left to make up that deficit and more underlines how the race developed at a much later stage than the Champion. Altior had to be driven to respond to Charbel鈥檚 kick initially but he had closed the gap to half a length when Charbel departed and, realistically, was only just beginning to get going. The formbook suggests Altior would have been too strong for Charbel and the nature in which he increased his margin over the second-placed Cloudy Dream from two lengths at the last to six lengths at the line further convinces me.

Had Charbel stood up I think he鈥檇 have finished second. In that instance, with six lengths covering the first three home. In a falsely-run race Altior was always going to struggle to justify his lofty rating. That figure has still been adjusted, however, from 170 to 168 and there are several strands to why.

Firstly, Fox Norton endorsed the Newbury race in which Altior got his figure when touched off in the Champion; but there was a suspicion he had not enjoyed the ideal preparation for that contest following an injury. More pertinently, the third-placed Dodging Bullets ran poorly in the Grand Annual later in the week suggesting the chink of light from Newbury had merely been a false dawn.

I could have dropped Altior lower than 168 but I still definitely believe in him. Further to that, he had slammed the Champion Hurdle winner Buveur d鈥橝ir in last year鈥檚 Supreme.聽 I feel with that one going to 167 Altior (still unbeaten over jumps) deserves to be higher. At 168 he sits 1lb below where Sprinter Sacre and Douvan were at the end of their novice seasons.聽 I still think he鈥檒l surpass 170 when the opportunity presents itself. Maybe a clash with Special Tiara in the Celebration Chase at Sandown on the final day of the season could materialise.

As for the other principals from the Arkle, Charbel can of course have his rating raised having got as far as the second last and I moved him from 147 to 154. His pre-race 147 was made to look on the low side by both Max Ward鈥檚 win last Saturday and his earlier defeat of Top Notch. Cloudy Dream was also raised, from 147 to 153. Averaging out the performances for second and third in the Arkle over the last 10 years returns a figure of around 153. Basing Charbel and Cloudy Dream around that level should ensure I am in the 鈥榬ight鈥� area until further evidence emerges.

The third 2m chase of the week was the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap and it went the way of Jessica Harrington鈥檚 Rock The World. The nine-year-old showed the benefit of a breathing operation as he made light of a mark 1lb higher than when third last year.聽 Should he come back for the Red Rum at Aintree he鈥檒l be up 5lb to 152.

Solid Air

In a season when the two mile hurdle division had looked anything but clear cut, the decision to return Buveur d鈥橝ir to hurdles in the run up to the Stan James Champion Hurdle proved the decisive move, writes David Dickinson.

Whatever history might suggest about the merit of the Class of 2017, Buveur d鈥橝ir does jump like a top class hurdler. In lowering the colours of his stable companion My Tent Or Yours, who returned to form on this better ground, he showed that fluent jumping is all important in Championship races. My Tent Or Yours鈥� rating of 162 for finishing second in the race to Annie Power fits fairly closely with the Irish Champion Hurdle ratings of 161 and 157 recorded by Petit Mouchoir and Footpad in that race.

I could have gone a pound or maybe two higher but the last time I have the ten year old My Tent Or Yours running above 162 was in the 2014 Scottish Champion Hurdle and he has not won a race since. This gives Buveur d鈥橝ir a perfectly respectable Champion Hurdle winning rating of 167, below the level his Supreme conqueror of 2016, Altior, has achieved over fences.

The Sky Bet Supreme did not look a vintage renewal either and fell to Labaik whose reluctance to start, rather than any perceived lack of ability, ensured that he went off at a fancy price. The Supreme was the slower race by some two and a half seconds this year and Labaik鈥檚 rating of 155 is somewhere around a par figure for the race. How often in future he will jump off at the start of a race is anyone鈥檚 guess, however.

Friday鈥檚 decisive victory of the favourite Defi Du Seuil in the JCB Triumph Hurdle showed him to be a step ahead of his contemporaries – a position he has enjoyed for much of the season. Any worries about quicker ground or doubts about his jumping were dispelled with a fine display and his 155 winning rating has only been bettered in this race by Our Conor, Peace And Co and Katchit since 2000.

Rashaan 鈥� the Handicapper explains

The irony of the furore with regard to Rashaan following the publication of the weights for Newbury鈥檚 Betfair Hurdle is that a glance through the other ratings allotted to Irish trained entries suggests that the rating differential is now slight. This is particularly when it comes to conditions races.

The conditions form, Rashaan apart, is represented by Footpad (here 149 and Ireland 147), Thomas Hobson (143 in both countries) and Allblak des Places (142 in both countries). This shows how close together the two handicaps are most of the time.

Most notable rating differences normally involve handicap form. Examples include Mick Jazz (141 here but 134 there), De Name Escapes Me (139 and 134) and Desoto County (136 and 132).

So what of Rashaan? His trainer was very understandably surprised to discover that his 139 hurdler in Ireland was rated 154 in Britain. To the best of my knowledge no one here had been contacted as to the level of his rating. By contrast the Gordon Elliot yard contacted me to get a new mark for Whizzzey Rascal before deciding to run and win under a penalty at Bangor on Monday.

My rating for Rashaan鈥檚 run has been on our system since that Down Royal win at the start of November. It has not been manipulated in light of the subsequent successes of the second and third.

When assessing the Down Royal race I took the view that Apple鈥檚 Jade had run below form; but that Petite Mouchoir had not. As that horse had been agreed on 150 in the 2015-16 Anglo Irish Classifications, I put Rashaan to 154 for the three and a quarter lengths he had beaten Petit Mouchoir. It was a tricky race to assess – falsely run would be the common term. There was a decent early pace which slackened mid-race and then turned into something of a sprint. It could be argued that Petit Mouchoir was a little unlucky.

So, has anything happened subsequently to make me believe that the rise for Rashaan was an overreaction? Apple鈥檚 Jade looked an unlucky loser in the Fighting Fifth (a race in which Petit Mouchoir was going well when coming down three out). She then won the Grade One Bar One Racing Hatton鈥檚 Grace over an extra half mile in early December. Petite Mouchoir followed up his Newcastle fall by running away with the Grade One Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas beating Nichols Canyon by further than Annie Power had at Cheltenham last March.

In our daily conversations we often tell trainers that we much prefer to handicap horses on what they have beaten rather than what has beaten them. Whilst I re-handicapped Rashaan on what he had beaten, My Manekineko was rated to finish last in this race and did so. He appeared to run very well. The mathematics of the race suggest he has run in the mid 140鈥檚 in finishing last in a falsely run race. But he finished behind the horses he should have finished behind and therefore his mark here remained unchanged.

He is now rated eleven pounds higher than the 143 agreed in last season鈥檚 Classifications.

In my opinion a more contentious one cropped up this last weekend. Again there will be differing views as there is no correct answer.

When The New One narrowly beat Clyne at Haydock on Saturday, what should my reaction have been? Clyne finished in front of higher rated rivals L鈥檃mi Serge and Cyrus Darius. As a horse who had won his previous four races and was raised three pounds for 鈥榯hat race鈥� in the fog on the last of them, I felt that a five pound rise to 148 was justified which prevents a subsequent run in a 0-145 handicap (he looks Betfair bound in any case). Cyrus Darius has been dropped to 145. This gives his trainer extra options when he views the programme book following the horse鈥檚 long absence.