Those with an interest in the subject will remember that back in 2016 my predecessor as BHA Head of Handicapping, Phil Smith, undertook a review of the Flat Weight-For-Age (WFA) Scale 鈥� the recommendations from which were implemented in 2017.

Move forward to August 2023 and the European Pattern Committee asked me to lead on a piece of work that:

a) Reviewed, where possible, the effectiveness of the amended Scale adopted in 2017 and recommend any further changes based on updated data analysis.
b) Unify the WFA Scales used across Europe 鈥� producing both imperial and metric versions of the agreed Scale.

In the following blog I will highlight samples of the analysis which proved key to the project, explain the process undertaken, the conclusions drawn and the final recommendations.

Analysis

This section presents the pertinent analysis in the following order:

– BHA explanation of the analytical methods used
– Data drawn from all age handicaps run in Great Britain, Ireland and Germany
– Data drawn from all age Black Type races run in Great Britain, Ireland, France, Germany and Italy.

Analytical Methods

WinIV

Win Impact Value: compares the number of winners achieved with the number that would be expected by random chance. This metric assumes that all horses have an equal chance in a race; for example, in a five-runner race, each horse would be expected to win 20% of the time.

Par is 1.00, where the number of winners equals the number of winners expected by random chance. As such, if a WinIV of 1.50 is achieved then 50% more races are being won in comparison to random chance. In contrast a WinIV of 0.50% suggests that 50% less races are being won in comparison.

PlcIV

Place Impact Value: similar to WinIV in that it compares the number of placed horses against those expected by random chance; for example, in an eight-runner race each horse would be expected to be placed 3/8ths of the time.

Once again par is 1.00 鈥� a PlvIV of 1.50 suggests 50% more places are being achieved in comparison to random chance and so on.

PRB

Percentage of Runners Beaten: The average percentage of runners beaten across the sample. A horse finishing 2nd in an 11-runner race has beaten 9 of their 10 rivals (90%), then the average of all runners across the sample is taken. The ideal number should be as close as possible to 50%.

Non-completions are considered to have finished joint last, so 0.00%, whilst any walkovers or voided races are removed from the analysis.

Heat Maps

In the 鈥渉eat map鈥� tables below those areas coloured white are those achieving, or close to achieving, the ideal results.

Those shaded in blue are those achieving results below the ideal 鈥� the darker the shade the further away it is.

Those shaded in red are those achieving above the idea 鈥� again the darker the shade, the greater the over achievement against random chance.

Handicap Data

Great Britain

Ireland

Germany

European Black Type and Listed Data

It is clear to see that the 2017 changes have had minimal impact on the overperformance of 3yos in British handicaps, particularly those at 13f+, whilst they also continue to regularly overperform in 10f-12f all age handicaps.

Whilst they also overperform at various points at 10f+ in Ireland, the issue is not nearly as marked as it is Britain whilst in Germany there is clear 3yo overperformance in 12f+ handicaps run between the middle of August through to the middle of October.

Interestingly, however, the data from Pattern and Listed races run in Great Britain, Ireland, France, Germany and Italy during the same period tells a slightly different story.

The metrics at all distance categories up to 13.49f are about as close to ideal as you are going to get but once again highlight 3yo overperformance in races run in the extended distance category (13.5f+). I therefore decided the only area which needed 鈥渢weaking鈥� and bringing more into line this time around was the extended distance races.

Given the above, I then had to make the decision as to whether those amendments should be based on the data supplied by domestic handicaps or that by Pattern and Listed races in the five major racing jurisdictions across Europe.

I decided on the latter for the following reasons:

– The review was undertaken at the request of the European Pattern Committee whose ultimate objective was to not only review the performance of the current Scale but to unify the Scales across Europe.

– Adjustments based on handicap form in Britain in particular could potentially be of a size that had an impact on the balance of handicaps in other countries 鈥� in essence, what would work in Britain may well not work elsewhere.

– Adjustments based on domestic handicap form could potentially swing the advantage in favour of the older horses in Pattern and Listed races rather than bringing about greater parity.

– To create greater parity in handicaps, domestic handicappers don鈥檛 have to totally rely on the WFA Scale 鈥� their own methodology can be used to help balance the situation.

– As stated above, the Pattern and Listed race metrics for all distance categories bar the extended distance contests are largely satisfactory 鈥� any changes made on domestic handicap form could potentially change the dynamic in those areas.

All the major racing jurisdictions of Europe are represented on the European Pattern Committee and through 2024 I presented several options in terms of amendments to the current Scale 鈥� as expected, minor compromises had to be made through the process as those countries represented had their say on both the size of the changes and the timing of them. A final version was approved at the EPC meeting in August 2024 for implementation in 2025.

During the whole process I called upon the expertise of the senior Flat handicappers of Ireland, France and Germany whilst, on top of approval from the EPC, each jurisdiction will have presented the revised Scale to their various domestic racing and stakeholder committees for rubber stamping.

The table below is the agreed, updated version of the imperial WFA Scale with colour coded representations of the changes made. A kilogramme conversion of it was agreed for those metric jurisdictions across Europe.

Dominic Gardiner-Hill, BHA Head of Handicapping

One of the main areas of study was to look at the distribution of all ratings across both the hurdle and chase files and the results are displayed below. The titles of each graph are self explanatory, whilst I have also included the distribution of 3yo+ within the flat ratings file for comparison.

Taking both the chase file (above) and the hurdle file (below) and comparing the average ratings of the seasons covering 2008-2011 against the seasons covering 2018-2021, it is clear to see that there has been a change in the distribution within certain areas of both files 鈥� in short, there has been an upward movement of the horses located in the middle part of the files, causing the 鈥渂ulge鈥� to move higher up the ratings scale.

This, of course, largely represents the area where the younger, progressive horses who are working their way up the ratings file coincide with the older, regressive horses who are starting to work their way in the opposite direction

In contrast, the distribution of the 3yo+ within the flat file has a much more statistically acceptable shape to it 鈥� from middle to bottom rather than middle to top as in the jumps files.

After discussions within the Handicapping team and other involved parties within the BHA, the decision has been made to address this issue basing the process on the analysis provided. The objective being to get the file distribution back to where it was (or close to where it was) during the 2008鈥�2011 period – it was then a case of deciding how.

Three options were considered:

1. A manual review of ratings to take place during the quieter two weeks of August when there was minimal Summer Jumping 鈥� having seen the number of horses involved (over 4,000) and the disruption it would cause to results and entries during this period it was discarded
2. An automated review done by computer on a given date 鈥� this, however, largely took away ownership and responsibility from the Handicappers and it was felt it may throw up inconsistencies
3. An organic process in which the handicapping team made subtle changes to certain areas of their methodology to meet the required objective by an agreed date.

After much debate we have decided to go with option 3 which has two major advantages over the others:

• It causes minimal disruption to the day to day running of jumps racing
• It allows the handicappers to take responsibility and be able to justify every amendment made

There will be no 鈥渟eismic鈥� change in handicapping methodology 鈥� the basics (recent form, relativity between horses, profile, success rates, etc) will stay in place but the following actions will also be followed:

• More generous drops where appropriate for older/regressive/ non-winning horses 鈥� this will entail certain 1-2lb drops becoming a 2-3lb drop, 2-3lb drops becoming a 3-4lb drop and so on.
• Based on the analysis provided, start certain sections of the novice hurdle division on lower opening marks (final details to be confirmed)
• Recalculate BHA Race Standards where appropriate
• Take horses off the ratings file who haven鈥檛 run for 6 months rather than the current 9 months – thus allowing the handicapper to assess their handicap mark when entered.
• More rigorous 鈥渂ack handicapping鈥�

To help facilitate the above the handicappers will:

• Use an analysis based list of horses, drawn up when we were considering an automated review, as a guide but with human input.
• More rigorous file analysis on a more regular basis, both flat and jumps, to make sure stability is maintained.
• Look into the possibility of an annual analytical review of the file during August in readiness for the new season

We have set ourselves a target date of January 1^st 2022 to complete this process and progress will be monitored on a weekly basis involving a number of analytics 鈥� this will obviously allow us to make sure we stay on track over the coming months to achieve our objectives by that date

Dominic Gardner-Hill

BHA Head of Handicapping Dominic Gardiner-Hill assesses the two most valuable races on Champions鈥� Day, starting with Cracksman鈥檚 dominant success in the Qipco Champion Stakes鈥�

As was the case twelve months ago, the highlight of Champions Day 2018 was undoubtedly the performance of Cracksman in winning his second Champion Stakes. Rated 130 when demolishing his field by seven lengths last year,

Cracksman with John Gosden

the question is whether he achieved a similar level with his very comfortable six-length success (looks further to the naked eye) on Saturday, when he was in such control that Frankie Dettori could spend the last half furlong waving to the crowd.

From a ratings perspective the slight concern is the presence of Czech raider Subway Dancer (pre-race 108) in third, but for whom the race would probably be rated higher. He is no slouch however, and was credited with a

performance of 112 when runner-up in last year鈥檚 Prix Dollar (French Group 2) and I suspect he has run to that sort of level here. As such, runner-up Crystal Ocean (pre-race 129) has run to 114 on ground that may well have been too soft and over a trip that may have been too sharp. Interestingly, the last time he ran over 10f with some cut in the ground I had him running to a very similar level (113) when winning the Gordon Richards at Sandown on his seasonal reappearance.

From a purely mathematical point of view that would leave Cracksman having run to 126/127+ but such was his dominance and ease of victory, I believe it would be churlish to say that his performance wasn鈥檛 as good as last year鈥檚 and I have put him back to his peak mark of 130.

That would represent the best performance we have seen in Europe this season and, come December, the World鈥檚 Best Racehorse Rankings Committee will discuss the performance in relation to the world鈥檚 other leading performers through the year.

Roaring Lion & Oisin Murphy win The Gr.1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

Following on from the Champion Stakes and various other results from the second half of the season, my colleague Mark Olley (who looks after the top 12f races) and I had a conversation regarding the top British-trained performers of the season in relation to each other and made a couple of tweaks. Crystal Ocean, who has yet to win at Group 1 level, is pulled back to 126 whilst his King George conqueror Poet鈥檚 Word is reassessed at 127 鈥� the same as his Juddmonte International conqueror Roaring Lion.

Mention of Roaring Lion brings me neatly to the QEII and a fourth straight Group 1 success for John Gosden鈥檚 colt. To my mind the soft ground was the determining factor as far as the result was concerned, with Roaring Lion running 9 lb below his best in gaining a narrow victory on ground that both jockey and trainer were adamant that he was hating – the next five horses home were all proven soft ground performers.

The presence of Stormy Antarctic in fourth gives a major clue as to the level of the contest, that gelding having never run higher than 114 in twenty-three previous starts and I see no obvious reason as to why he should have improved on run number twenty-four. As such, I have Roaring Lion running to 118, runner-up I Can Fly (who could be considered a little unlucky as carried 2 lb overweight and didn鈥檛 get the clearest of runs 2f out) improving from 110 to 116 and Century Dream (third) going up a couple of pounds, also to 116.

All the right notes

Five wins out of five.聽Over 拢2,000,000 won in prize money and bonuses. It has been a dream year for Stradivarius.聽He rounded off his season by winning the Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup at Ascot, but it could have finished very differently, as Matthew Tester explains 鈥�

This win showed why Stradivarius is king of the stayers.聽He is a stayer with a turn of foot.聽With three furlongs to go he was stuck on the rails with nowhere to go.聽When, turning into the straight, the front-running Flag of Honour swung just one horse鈥檚 width off the rails, that was enough encouragement for Frankie Dettori. He already had Stradivarius ready to go. The horse quickened into the gap before Ryan Moore could shut the door and the race was won in that instant.聽Without that gap, without that acceleration and without Frankie having him primed for the moment, his perfect season might not have happened.

Runners round the bend in the Gr.2聽 Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup

None of Stradivarius鈥� five wins in 2018 have been gained by a wide margin but he keeps pulling out enough. His rating of 120 remains unchanged after Saturday but it might go higher next year.聽Only one of his opponents in the Long Distance Cup was rated higher than 112, but next year Stradivarius could take on the St Leger winner Kew Gardens in the top staying races, that colt currently rated his equal at 120.聽 That might be the chance for Stradivarius to show us everything that he can do and for him to earn an even higher figure.

Magical success

Magical & Ryan Moore winning the Gr.1 Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes

Man of the moment John Gosden looked to have a strong hand in the Group 1 Qipco British Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes, writes Mark Olley, saddling hot favourite Lah Ti Dar and last year鈥檚 third Coronet. However, that pair had to give best to Ballydoyle鈥檚 Magical.

Having won the race last year, Aidan O鈥橞rien was mob handed in the latest renewal, saddling six of the eleven runners, including last year鈥檚 119-rated winner Hydrangea. However, she has unfortunately been a shadow of herself this season and finished a well-held fifth.

Victory went to Magical who missed the early part of the season with a minor setback. This was her second try at 12f (down the field in the Arc last time) and she proved her stamina with a decisive win. I have a figure of 115 on this performance (her official rating will be published in Ireland) and that bears comparison with our historical standards of 116 for an average winner.

Coronet finished third in 2017 and went one better this time. She didn鈥檛 get an ideal run through the race but still managed to beat her better-fancied stablemate Lah Ti Dar. Her 113 rating is the same as she achieved in the race last year.

Hot favourite Lah Ti Dar was initially rated 115 after her ten-length defeat of Light of Joy in the Galtres Stakes at York. That wasn鈥檛 an easy performance to rate and that has now been revised down 1 lb to 114. Still inexperienced, she reportedly remains in training and it would be no surprise were she to progress further as a four-year-old.

Champion Sprinter?

Going in to this year鈥檚 Qipco British Champions Sprint no one horse had stamped their dominance on the 6f division this season, writes Stewart Copeland. Indeed, the previous five Group 1 races in Europe at the distance had produced five different winners.

Of them, only The Tin Man was in the fourteen-strong field, so it was no surprise the recent Haydock Sprint Cup winner was sent off favourite, given he boasts an excellent record at the Berkshire track, too.

However, it was not to be his day, and instead the honours went to the 3yo Sands of Mali, trained by Richard Fahey and given an excellent front-running ride by Paul Hanagan.

Having been below par since a somewhat unlucky second in the Commonwealth Cup at the track in June, he bounced back in great style and arguably put up a marginal career best effort in landing the spoils.

Soon dictating the pace, he kicked on 2f out and always looked in command thereafter. The hand-timed sectionals I took suggest a slightly positive split for the last 2f, which emphasises the jockey got the fractions spot on. In a race which very few got into, a position on or near the pace looked an advantage.

Sands Of Mali and Paul Hannigan winning the Sprint Championship

In terms of assessing the race, the historical and pre-race standards both suggest a figure in the region of 117/118 for Sands of Mali, and I eventually settled on 118. This links in neatly with third-placed Donjuan Triumphant鈥檚 rating of 112. Like the winner, he was well placed on the pace throughout and was fully proven under the prevailing conditions.

Splitting the pair was last year鈥檚 champion sprinter, Harry Angel. It鈥檚 been a frustrating season for all those concerned with him so it was good to see him run so well. A combination of the stiff track and soft going were probably never going to show him in his very best light, so he deserves plenty of credit for his effort in running to 115.

Reflecting on the season as a whole, there鈥檚 little to choose between the winners of the Group 1 6f sprints in Europe, though in my view U S Navy Flag鈥檚 victory in the July Cup just shades it at 119.

However, it鈥檚 unusual when a performance outside the very highest company tops all of them, but Harry Angel鈥檚 success in the Group 2 Duke of York arguably still rates as the best 6f performance this season. He achieved a rating of 123 on the Knavesmire 鈥� when carrying a Group-1 penalty – and it only adds to the frustration that we were unable to see him match that level during his luckless campaign.

Tiger Roll & Davy Russell

A few years ago the BHA, in conjunction with Aintree, brought in a new qualification rule for the Randox Health Grand National. To qualify, a horse has to have finished in the first four in a chase over three miles or further. Non-stayers are a potential risk both to themselves and to other horses in the latter stages of the race.

However to run well or win the race appears to require much greater stamina than running decently over a bare 3m. Over the last three years four races stand out as being important in the career of horses who run well in the Grand National. They are the National Hunt Chase and the Cross Country Races at Cheltenham, the Irish Grand National and the Betfred Classic at Warwick.

Just look at this year鈥檚 first seven home:

Tiger Roll (winner) had won the National Hunt Chase over 4m and the Cross Country at Cheltenham over 3m 6f.

Pleasant Company (2nd) had been a staying on ninth in last year鈥檚 race after a momentum stopping error at the 25th fence which is Valentine鈥檚 Brook second time round.

Pleasant Company ridden by Ruby Walsh (L) leads Saint Are ridden by Davy Russesell over an early fence during The 2017 Randox Health Grand National

Bless The Wings (3rd) had won the Cross Country over 3m 6f and been second in the Irish National over 3m 5f.

Anibale Fly (4th) had been a staying on third in the Gold Cup over the stiff 3m 2.5f furlongs of Cheltenham.

Milansbar (5th) had won the Betfred Classic over 3m5f at Warwick and been second in the Midlands Grand National over 4m 2f.

Road To Riches (6th) had been 3rd in the Gold Cup in the past.

Gas Line Boy (7th) had been fifth in the Grand National last year.

It was the similar last year:

One For Arthur (1st) had won the Betfred Classic at Warwick,

Cause of Causes (2nd) had won the National Hunt Chase and the Cross Country,

Saint Are (3rd) had previously been second in the race.

Blaklion (4th) had just been second in the Haydock Grand National Trial over 3m 4f.

In 2016 it was very much the same story:

Rule The World (1st) had been second in the Irish Grand National.

The Last Samuri (2nd) had won the Grimthorpe at Doncaster over 3m 2f.

Vics Canvas (3rd) had been second in the Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown over 3m 5f.

One For Arthur wins The 2017 Randox Health Grand National

Classy and unexposed new kids on the block do not win the Grand National. Hennessy winners like Many Clouds, Ulster Grand National winners like Pineau de Re and horses beaten a head in the Scottish Grand National like Auroras Encore do.

Of course it helped both Tiger Roll and Anibale Fly this year that they were technically 鈥渨ell in鈥� for the race after performing to a higher level after the weights came out. Far more important was their proven stamina at further than 3m. After all the rain I was relieved that the winning distance this year was only a head but, for the second time, I just missed out on the much yearned for dead heat!

Afterwards some people were complaining about the domination of Irish trained horses but, when I looked back, I was happy with the weights I allocated to them all two months ago. After-timing is a great fashion in British racing so I just hope that anyone who complained had availed themselves of the prices that were available for the first five back in February. You could get 40/1 Tiger Roll, Anibale Fly was 33/1 while Pleasant Company, Bless The Wings and Milansbar were all on 66/1.

On Monday I consulted with my Irish counterpart Sandy Shaw and we both agreed that despite the close finish, to some extent Tiger Roll was getting a bit lonely out in front. As a result I have put the winner up 9lbs to 159 and the second up 7lbs. from 148 to 155 thus calling the head as 2lbs. compared to the traditional 1lb.

Many Clouds and Leighton Aspellwinning The 2015 Crabbie’s Grand National from Saint Are & Shutthefrontdoor

The horse I was most proud about this year was actually Bless The Wings. He is clearly a much better Cross Country horse where I have him on 154 compared to his rating of 136 over regulation fences. I was in a dilemma back in February when I did the weights as 154 was clearly inappropriate whereas 136 would not get him into the race. In this one race I have special dispensation to differ from published ratings so I added a nominal 7lbs. penalty to his park rating and he ran off 143. He more than justified that decision.

Phil Smith, BHA Head of Handicapping

So remember next year when you are trying to find the winner, form at the bare minimum of 3m from a horse on the up will not be enough. You need a horse that stays further and has been around the block a little. Never under-estimate the Cheltenham

Cross Country races. Tiger Roll, Cause of Causes, Silver Birch and Balthazar King are the proof as they are all intelligent, athletic horses. Size does NOT matter!

The Grade 1 Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase

I am struggling to remember a race which left me as breathless as the 2018 Timico Gold Cup. It is very rare in any 3 mile+ chase for the horses who jump the first fence in first and second place to still be there at the last fence and then at the finishing post. Has it ever happened in the Gold Cup before?

Having watched the replay a number of times I still think Might Bite is going to win at the second last. He would have been a very decent winner of the race, equal in my view to Coneygree (172) in 2015. The final uphill furlong on soft ground with heavy patches found him out but it was still his best ever performance.

Anibale Fly showed himself to be the most thorough stayer of the Irish trained 3 mile chasers by keeping on to be a fast finishing third. Before the race I had Road To Respect on 168 and Andrew Shaw the new Irish Handicapper had him a pound lower. I have to agree now that he was right and I have dropped him to that figure although I only have him performing to 165 at Cheltenham. As a result Anibale Fly is raised to 168, which puts him 9lbs. well in for the Randox Health Grand National.

The effect of having a performance figure of 168 for Anibale Fly is to put Native River on 176. Only Denman, Imperial Commander, Long Run, Bobs Worth and Kauto Star x 2 have been higher in my time in the job. It puts him just ahead of Kicking King (175) and Best Mate (175) who in my view was unlucky not to be rated higher as he only ever faced opposition either past their best or inferior to Might Bite.

Another link with Best Mate is how few (2) times this year鈥檚 winner has run in the season. Best Mate twice only ran on three occasions in the season when he won his Gold Cups but has there ever been a year when the winner was only having his second run?

Returning to the Randox Health Grand National there are now five horses that are technically well in. Anibale Fly (+9), Bellshill (+7), Shantou Flyer (+5) Rathvinden (+4) and Tiger Roll (+2).

Native River getting a lot of attention after winning The Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup

Bristol De Mai and Daryl Jacob winning The Betfair Chase

The race has been blessed with some outstanding top weights in recent years but most of them had already achieved their greatest success by the time they were entered for Aintree. Definitly Red started the season on 149 but will run at Aintree off 165.

Equally the joint second top weights, Bristol de Mai and Edwulf are on their highest ever rating. Bristol de Mai started the season on 159 but following his win in the Betfair Chase he will run off 164 at Liverpool, while Edwulf began the season under an injury cloud but has been resurrected by his trainer and has progressed from 153 to a new high of 164. Who knows where those three rising stars might end up.

In most years Outlander would be a worthy top weight. He has won Grade 1鈥檚 in Ireland over 3 miles and this season has been placed in their two top Grade 1 staying chases. The quality of this year鈥檚 contest means he has only 11st. 8lbs. to carry. In the first Grand National I assessed he would have been on 12 stone.

Thanks to the amazing work of everyone at Aintree and the generosity of the sponsors, the improvement in the quality of the horses entered in the race has continued to rise. In 2003, 45% of the original entries were rated at 135+. This year 90% of the 104 qualified to run are at 135+.

At this point 73% of the field are in the handicap and I would be amazed if anything runs from out of the handicap on the day. In 1999 there was not a full field as only 32 horses turned up on the day and 18 of them were out of the handicap. Over the subsequent years it has been increasingly difficult to get a run in the race.

Last year a horse needed to be 71^st in the original weights to get a run on the big day. This year the horses on 10st. 2lbs take the field size to 70. It will be tricky to get a run lower than that. Horses on 10st. 2lbs. and below need to be running well over the next couple of months to project themselves to the top of their weight to get priority in the elimination sequence.

Blaklion ridden by Noel Fehily clears an early fence during The Randox Health Grand National Steeple Chase Race run at Aintree.

Currently the favourite is Blaklion and it is not difficult to see why. Coming across the Melling Road for the second time he looked much like the winner but didn鈥檛 quite last home. Subsequently he won the Becher Chase and is now rated on 161. Despite being favourite it will still be a big ask to win the race as only Many Clouds off 160 has been a winner off that sort of mark since Red Rum.

The 19 winners in my time as the Handicapper have come from a variety of different origins. 7 have been trained in Ireland and 12 have been trained in Great Britain. 4 have been trained in the North of England and one in Scotland. One has been trained by the Champion trainer and one by the son of a Champion trainer. There have been winning trainers with over 200 horses and others with a handful. That is a great aspect of the National. Once you are in the forty anything can win.

In 2005 Hedgehunter became the first horse to carry 11stone+ to victory since 1988. Since then another five have carried the burden of 11stone plus so now there are no horses that can reasonably be said to have an impossible task at the weights.

All that is needed now is for the finish on 14^th April to resemble that when Neptune Collonges won in 2012 rather the one when Red Marauder won in 2001!

In December every year around 20 International Handicappers meet in Hong Kong and discuss the end of year rating for every horse in the world who has been nominated by the domestic Handicapper at 115 and above. We debate every horse and this year there are 334 horses around the world who have been allocated a figure of 115+.

The criteria that we use is what is the horse鈥檚 highest sustainable performance in the year? The definition of 鈥渉ighest sustainable performance鈥� is the best performance put up by a horse in the year that can be supported and substantiated by the prior or subsequent runs of the winner and/or the placed horses.

Domestically I believe that form of a race works out around 25% of the time, doesn鈥檛 work out about 50% of the time and is mixed about 25% of the time. I suspect it is similar in Pattern Races around the world which we are using to base the rankings. It is therefore much more difficult for a horse to be allocated its final figure for a race earlier in the year than for one late in the year as there have been few if any chances for the form to be disproved.

Clearly Arrogate鈥檚 figure is unsustainable if you only look at HIS subsequent performances on his return to America from Dubai. However the LWBRR Committee do not work in such a superficial and limited way.

We took into account his previous run in the Pegasus which on 131 was only just below his Dubai run. That performance is supported by nearly all of Shaman Ghost鈥檚 (2^nd) subsequent runs, Neolithic鈥檚 (3^rd) next run in Dubai and by Keen Ice鈥檚 (4^th) runs when he returned to USA as well clearly by Arrogate鈥檚 next run in Dubai.

From Dubai the level of the race is supported by all of Gun Runner鈥檚 (2^nd) races throughout the season and by Mubtahij鈥檚 (3^rd) next run when he won the Awesome Again Stakes back home.

Thus Arrogate鈥檚 run in Dubai is strongly supported by the subsequent form of the beaten horses, while he has his win in the Pegasus to bolster his run in Dubai and the form of the beaten horses in the Pegasus is solid.

Of course what owners, breeders, trainers and racing enthusiasts want from both domestic and International Handicappers is a consistency of approach so that the same methodology is used for all of the horses that we considered in Hong Kong.

Look therefore at the case of Frontiersman who was second in the Coronation Cup to Highland Reel and second in the Princess of Wales鈥檚 Stakes at Newmarket to Hawkbill. That form was supported and substantiated by both winners subsequently but for whatever reason Frontiersman could not replicate it.

In Hong Kong Frontiersman was allocated 117 even though we have dropped his domestic handicap mark to 114. Of course there is a huge difference between a BHA handicap mark and a LWBRR figure. One is an assessment of a horse鈥檚 current ability level, the other is a historical reflection of its best annual performance.

Hopefully this explains why Arrogate has been given the title of LWBRR champion for 2017.

Champion Hurdle winner Buveur d鈥橝ir鈥檚 expected and comfortable win in the Grade One Unibet Christmas Hurdle on Boxing Day could hardly have prepared us for the upheaval just three days later in the ante-post market for Cheltenham, writes David Dickinson.

The small field event went pretty much as expected in that The New One proved his main rival. The form is hard to rave about, however, given the proximity of Mohaayed and Chesterfield at the line 鈥� neither with any pretentions of being genuine Grade One horses.

So, with Buveur d鈥橝ir although fit and well not advancing his 169 rating, it was to Leopardstown that all eyes turned for the run of 2015 champion Faugheen. Here is where the script went off-piste as he fluffed his lines, pulling up after dropping back to last going to the penultimate flight and leaving stable mate Cilaos Emery to be denied by the ever improving Mick Jazz.

In the immediate aftermath of this result the Champion Hurdle market took on the guise of a Whitehall farce. In the ensuing confusion, a horse who had finished last in a three mile chase the previous day briefly became second favourite for the Champion Hurdle. Something resembling sanity was resumed only once it was revealed that Faugheen鈥檚 career was not over as he happily appeared to be uninjured.

Given the way that the first two at Leopardstown left the accident-prone but highly able Campeador in their wake, I do wonder if the demise of Faugheen has distracted us from a couple of very decent performances.

Maria’s Benefit & Ciaran Gethings winner of The Play Casino At 188Bet Handicap Hurdle (Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Qualifier) at聽 Sandown Park 12/11/2017

If that race was tough to get a handle on then Saturday鈥檚 Tote-sponsored Mares Listed race at Taunton was impossible. This excellent innovation was being run for a sixth year and the field which featured four mares rated in the 130鈥檚 looked well up to scratch. However to see Maria鈥檚 Benefit win by 30 lengths despite being eased down was very much out of the ordinary.

If judged through any of the other three 130+ horses in the race, then this is top class form. That is very hard to believe given that this only has Listed status and historically the winner rates in the high 130鈥檚. The overall time compared with the handicap on the card won by Attest, suggests a rating in the 140鈥檚 but the split times make for very interesting reading.

Maria鈥檚 Benefit was marginally slower to the second hurdle then Rio Bravo (who made the running in the handicap). By the time she jumped the same flight, then the third last, she was over six seconds faster than the handicap. This was a blistering burst, particularly in the back straight and she is clearly very good.

I have come up with a figure of 152 for her performance, a rise of sixteen pounds.聽Anyone who tries to tell you that their (probably different) figure is the right one might be deluding themselves – this race is just about as difficult as handicapping gets.

Her reported targets are the Mares race at Doncaster and then the Mares Novice at the Festival. My reservation about the latter would be based on Saturday鈥檚 run style. She went hard after the first three furlongs or so and was easing down the final half mile. Similar tactics in March would see her doing most of her hardest running uphill.

MIGHT BITE NOW TOP CHASER

At first sight the result of the 32Red King George VI Chase was slightly confusing because of the proximity of Double Shuffle (who went into the race rated 151) and, to a lesser extent, Tea For Two who was on 164. Even allowing for Might Bite idling I could not get him higher than 169 calling the three lengths to Tea For Two as 5lbs.

Might Bite and Nico de Boinville winning 32Red King George VI Chase

This made him the lowest King George winner of the last five renewals a pound less than Thistlecrack last year and Long Run in 2012. I am comfortable with this given the apparently massive improvement achieved by Double Shuffle (now 166) and it will be interesting to see how he performs next time. My next thought was to compare Might Bite鈥檚 time with the time of the winner of the Kauto Star Chase. Black Corton I had on 155 before Boxing Day and for beating Elegant Escape (150), I kept him on the same rating.

Might Bite ran the same course in a time 2.8 seconds faster and carried 3lb more than Black Corton. The time lapse is the equivalent of 11 lengths = 11lbs. + 3lbs =14. 155+14=169.

Thus using Tea For Two as a guide, comparing Might Bite鈥檚 time with that of Black Corton and using the race standards, 169 appeared a sensible figure. I suspect he is capable of better and he will need to be as the Gold Cup is usually won by a 170+ performance.

Meanwhile I have dropped Bristol de Mai back from 173 to 167. Because of the nature of the ground at Haydock I always had some doubt about the validity of his 173 and I now cannot have him superior to Might Bite.

I did find it interesting that in the Racing Post earlier this week, they still have Bristol de Mai as their top jumping horse of 2017 on 185!

MONEY SPINNER

With the prominent players from the 2017 Stayers鈥� Hurdle falling by the wayside, northern challenger Sam Spinner put himself to the forefront for the 2018 version with a comprehensive success in the JLT Reve de Sivola Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot, writes Martin Greenwood.聽

Sam Spinner and Joe Colliver winner jumps with Unowhatimeanharry and Barry Geraghty in The Gr.1 JLT Reve De Sivola Long Walk Hurdle.

Sam Spinner has been upped in distance with each start this season and shows better form every time. Impressive when careering home in a competitive handicap at Haydock on his penultimate start, this was an even more taking performance in some ways though the winning margin was nowhere near as big.

Taking up his now customary position at the ahead of affairs, Sam Spinner looked to be going comfortably all the way round and had shaken off everything bar the equally strong travelling L鈥橝mi Serge (still 159) turning in. Not for the first time (and presumably not for the last time either) the latter found absolutely nothing for pressure while the winner looked to have plenty left in the tank.

Five-year standards for this race place this performance anywhere between 153 and 162 with a median and average of those standards in the mid to high 150s. Given the pre-race ratings I have decided to match the 162 suggested as the peak but with an extra 2lb added for style. This makes his 164 the best staying hurdle performance of the season so far.

Further back in the field, both Unowhatimeanharry (now 163) and Lil Rockerfeller (157), second and third in last season鈥檚 Stayers, continue to underperform, while current champion Nichols Canyon sadly lost his life after falling at Punchestown.

The main beneficiary at Punchestown was Apple鈥檚 Jade who was stepped up to three miles for the first time and made it five wins on the spin. She just got the best of a titanic tussle with pacesetter Supasundae who finished much closer than when the pair met over twenty furlongs at Fairyhouse earlier in December. That had been Supassundae鈥檚 first run of the season and with the return to the longer distance clearly suiting, he at least matched the 160 he performed to when to when second to Yanworth at Aintree last April.

Obviously with Apple鈥檚 Jade receiving the 7lb mares鈥� allowance, Supasundae comes out as comfortably the best horse in the race even though a case can be made that the Fairyhouse win of Apple鈥檚 Jade was an even better effort.

Joe Colliver after winning The Gr.1 JLT Reve De Sivola Long Walk Hurdle with Sam Spinner

Given that the 7lb allowance will, of course, be also available at Cheltenham there is very little to choose between Apple鈥檚 Jade and Sam Spinner at the moment.聽 The former, though, will undoubtedly also have the Mares Hurdle in her sights.

Later in the week there was a small but select field for the Betfred Challow Hurdle at Newbury.聽 The front pair of Poetic Rhythm and the tail-flashing Mulcahys Hill look up to standard. The race didn鈥檛 particularly make for great viewing however, as several were treading water miles from home in what looked very holding conditions. Mulcahys Hill made a valiant attempt from the front but was slowly but surely overhauled by Poetic Rhythm who has risen by a single pound to 148.

This year鈥檚 6f Group 1 Darley July Cup attracted the smallest field since Agnes World鈥檚 victory in 2000 writes Stewart Copeland.聽 What it lacked in quantity it certainly made up for in quality.

Three of the field had already been successful at Group 1 level. They were Limato, triumphant in last year鈥檚 July Cup, and the winners of the two Group 1 sprints over 6f at Royal Ascot – the unbeaten 3yo Caravaggio and The Tin Man.

In my blog after Ascot I highlighted that the overall strength of the 3yo 6f form looked marginally stronger than the older horse division so far this year and Saturday鈥檚 race franked that current view. However it was not Caravaggio who consolidated that dominance but his closest rival at Ascot, Harry Angel.

The race itself was a fascinating affair. Pace and tactics play a crucial role in any race and this year鈥檚 July Cup was a clear example. Watching the race live at Newmarket, it was clearly evident that the early gallop was relatively modest for a top class sprint and a position up with the pace was likely to be helpful.

That visual impression was backed up by the clock as the sectionals I took clearly showed the second half of the race was notably quicker than the first.聽 This meant that those held up off the pace were at a disadvantage. To emphasise the point further the overall time for the race was pretty modest for a top class sprint.

However none of that should detract from an impressive success for Harry Angel. Ridden with a shade more restraint than at Ascot with his jockey content to track the pace-making Intelligence Cross. Harry Angel quickened in tremendous style 2f out and soon took control of the race.聽 He never looked in any real danger thereafter. He has brilliant speed in abundance and his jockey utilised that to maximum effect with a great tactical ride.

As for assessing the race, the relatively modest gallop to halfway meant the overall field finished rather in a heap; so, at present, there is a degree of caution in settling on a level. Over the years I would expect a winning performance in the region of at least 118 or 119. For now I have credited Harry Angel with the latter figure. He was 118 after the Commonwealth Cup where there was reasons from the sectionals to think he was slightly better than the bare form that day.聽 Therefore I am happy to credit him with the slightly higher figure.

That ties in well with the prominently ridden Limato.聽 He finished an admirable length and a quarter second in trying to defend his crown reproducing the 115 he ran in defeat in the Diamond Jubilee. A most creditable effort from him but still below his peak of 122 last year.

Brando ran an excellent race a further half-length back in third staying on strongly from the rear. This was a performance which could be marked up given how the race panned out. I have him running to 114 but there is no doubt in my mind he is still at least as good as the 116 he was already rated.

Finally Caravaggio may have lost his unbeaten record in finishing a narrow fourth but he still emerges from the race with plenty of credit. Quite simply he did not get the decent pace to aim at that he had at Ascot.聽 The tempo of the race did not play to his strengths. As I said in my Ascot blog, we do not publish BHA ratings for Irish horses but my view at present is that his Commonwealth Cup win should remain unchanged at 121.

Guineas favourite has it to prove

Newmarket鈥檚 July Festival saw the latest round of major juvenile clashes.聽 While we are still waiting for a potential superstar to announce their arrival with a big performance, there were one or two pointers if you read between the lines writes Graeme Smith.

Clemmie has looked a different filly in recording two pattern successes since finishing only seventh in the Albany. She posted her second 107-performance in succession when drawing away from the Chesham runner-up Nyaleti in the Bet365 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes.

What looked a potentially interesting clash turned into a fairly comfortable success for Clemmie and it is easy to envisage her putting up a 110+ performance in the months ahead. She clocked a useful time and both that and the historical standards pointed in the direction of 107.

The third, fourth and fifth each showed improvement. Mistress of Venice had been drawn on the wrong side in the Albany. The Queen Mary third Out Of The Flames was stepping up in trip. The level has a solid foundation further back with So Hi Society and Darkanna having matched the figures they had achieved in the Empress (over the same course and distance) and Queen Mary respectively.

I now have several fillies around the 107/108 mark and the early signs suggest I could be raising Different League and Alpha Centauri from the Albany before long. From the first ten home only three have run subsequently but Clemmie and Actress have registered three pattern successes between them and Mistress of Venice also did her bit to boost the form.

Cardsharp became the first British-trained juvenile to reach 110 when scoring decisively in the Arqana July Stakes.

Mark Johnston鈥檚 son of Lonhro was having his sixth start in little over ten weeks and is clearly thriving on a busy campaign just as the Middle Park-winner The Last Lion did for the same stable last year. Interestingly, the runner-up U S Navy Flag was also having his sixth start.

Following Cardsharp鈥檚 third in the Norfolk, the step back up to 6f really suited him and a speed figure of 108 goes a good way to substantiating the performance.

The Coventry winner Rajasinghe had to settle for third under his 3lb penalty. He shaped as though a step up to 7f might be required; but the early signs from his Ascot race are not positive. Four of the first five have failed to do much for the form in subsequent starts.

The headline act amongst the juveniles was Gustav Klimt who was promoted to favourite for the 2000 Guineas following his narrow success in the Bet365 Superlative Stakes. His figure of 108 does not come close to justifying that reaction.

He is clearly a smart prospect having overcome trouble in running and he might step up significantly in the future.

A speed figure of 95 shows the gallop was not end-to-end and I felt Gustav Klimt was caught flat-footed when the tempo increased. That played a part in the trouble he met.聽 The interference and need to switch probably cost him the best part of two lengths. I gave him an extra 3lb adjustment for that. It might prove conservative and I am confident that he will improve further, particularly when faced with a true test. We should learn a lot more about him next time.

Roly Poly back to her best

Whilst stablemate Winter has been setting the standard amongst the 3yo fillies over a mile this year, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill, Roly Poly grabbed some Group 1 glory of her own on Friday with an all the way success in the Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes.

Relatively exposed after twelve previous starts she went into the contest with a pre-race mark of 112. Her very highest rating was a 115 as a 2yo. I find it difficult to believe that winning a Falmouth is inferior form to finishing 2nd in the Lowther and Cheveley Park last season so have credited her with returning to the 115 level this time. She has made gradual improvement in every start since her reappearance in the Nell Gwyn and that pattern looks to have been continued.

At 115 she matches the performances of the last two winners of the race Alice Springs (2016) and Amazing Maria (2015).

The chosen level for the contest has Wuheida (2nd: pre-race 114) running a very commendable 112 on her first start since early October. The improving Arabian Hope (3rd) goes up 3b to 111. Sea of Grace (4th) was a pound below the level she showed on soft ground in the French 1000 Guineas and German challenger Delectation (5th) was also a pound below her current mark of 106.

Unprecedented treble in the offing?

The 3yos may have made the headlines in the July Cup but it was the veterans who shone brightest in the big races over five furlongs on Saturday writes Andrew Mealor.

The 10yo Take Cover gained an eleventh career success in York鈥檚 listed City Walls Stakes, a race he had also landed as a 7yo back in 2014.

Historical standards for this well-established event point to a figure in the 110 region for the winner and it is likely that he did not need to improve on his pre-race rating of 111 in beating Final Venture by half a length with Cotai Glory a further neck back in third. Another trip to Goodwood for the King George Stakes will presumably be next for Take Cover when he will bid to land an unprecedented treble having already won that race in 2014 and 2016.

King鈥檚 Stand third Marsha was in action in Ireland over the weekend when she was narrowly turned over at short odds in the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes.聽 This was by the other British runner in the field, Caspian Prince, who gained a first success in Group company at the age of eight.

Going into the race with a rating of 116 (and in receipt of the 3 lb fillies鈥� allowance), it鈥檚 unlikely that Marsha was quite at her best despite beaten just a short head (pair clear). It still looks a career best from Caspian Prince despite his advancing years. He was rated 110 following his success in the 鈥楧ash鈥� at Epsom last month off a mark of 107 and has now moved up to 115. The form of Marsha鈥檚 win in the Palace House Stakes has been downgraded slightly, and she is now also rated 115.

Finally, it鈥檚 worth giving a mention to Danzeno who produced a smart effort off top weight when landing a competitive handicap at Ascot on Saturday, beating Polybius by three-quarters of a length. He has gone back to his 2016 peak mark of 109 (up 5 lb) as a result. A run in the Stewards鈥� Cup under a 6-lb penalty could be next, though potentially more interesting for the Goodwood showpiece could be Polybius who didn鈥檛 get the rub of the green at Ascot having met traffic problems in rear. He has gone up 4 lb to a mark of 106 but can race off his old mark of 102 in the Stewards鈥� Cup.