Chasers

The star turn of the week among the chasers was undoubtedly Galopin des Champs who continued Ireland’s stranglehold in the Festival highlight by landing back-to-back Gold Cups. He didn’t quite need to match the 179 performance he produced in 2023, with a winning figure of 174 good enough this time around, but it was still the highest-rated performance of the Festival and firmly cemented his place at the top of the division.

A second dual winner of the race for his trainer Willie Mullins (following Al Boum Photo), Galopin des Champs was a fourth Gold Cup winner for jockey Paul Townend, putting him level with Pat Taaffe (the rider of Arkle) as the most successful jockey in the race. Best Mate is the only horse since Arkle to win three Gold Cups, and Galopin des Champs will attempt to join that elite club at next year’s Festival.

Best of the home contingent was 2023 Grand National winner Corach Rambler who posted a personal best of 162 (up from 159) in finishing third, meaning he’ll be officially 3 lb well-in when he lines up for the Aintree showpiece on 13 April.

The Gold Cup went largely to form, but that was far from the case in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. The race had already been weakened by the late withdrawal of Jonbon (170), and hot favourite El Fabiolo (175) being pulled up after a bad jumping error at the fifth left a very weak feel to proceedings. Captain Guinness gained a first Grade 1 at the fourteenth time of asking in beating the Mullins second string Gentleman de Mee, and it’s unlikely he had to better by much – if at all – his previous highest rating of 162. Edwardstone looked booked for third when falling two out and has been dropped 2 lb to 164.

A competitive renewal of the Ryanair was notable for several dropping back in trip, and it was one of that group, Protektorat (167), who recorded a decisive success from last year’s winner Envoi Allen. Historical race standards point to winning figure in the mid-to-high 160s, with that sort of level also underpinned by the prior form of the principals.

Protektorat and Harry Sketon (yellow) winning The Ryanair Chase

Novice Chasers

The score was also 2-1 to Ireland in the three novice Grade 1 events over fences. The ratings produced by Grey Dawning (158 in the Golden Miller) and Fact To File (159 in the Brown Advisory) can only be considered as average at best for the winners of those races, suggesting they will need to improve to make an impact in top open company next year. The same can’t be said for Gaelic Warrior whose winning rating of 165 in the Arkle had been bettered only by Shishkin among the previous five winners.

Hurdlers

With 2023 winner Constitution Hill (175) absent, allied to an overall lack of depth in the two mile hurdle division currently, it’s perhaps no surprise the Champion Hurdle field looked distinctly substandard. State Man’s (169) prior form – which included a nine-length second to Constitution Hill in last year’s race – looked head and shoulders above what the opposition had achieved and he didn’t have to run near his best in winning what was a rather muddling affair, clocking a time one second slower than the earlier Supreme.

The proximity of outsiders Luccia and Colonel Mustard (the latter in particular) restricts the bare form level and it’s likely that State Man only had to run to a rating around the 161 mark in winning, which is a fair way below the level that would normally be expected in a Champion Hurdle.

Luccia ran a stormer nonetheless in faring best of the four British runners. She was rated 140 coming in on the back of a big handicap win at Ascot, though still with scope for improvement as a second-season hurdler, and is now up to 149.

In contrast, the Stayers’ Hurdle looked an up-to-scratch renewal and a 165 rating for Teahupoo makes him the best winner of the race since Paisley Park back in 2018. Dual Stayers’ Hurdle winner Flooring Porter (159) led home the remainder, and Teahupoo himself will likely have strong claims of multiple wins in the race given he’s still only a seven-year-old in a division where plenty of the main players are in the veteran stage.

The Mares’ Hurdle brought together no less than five previous Festival winners but the opposition couldn’t really lay a glove on odds-on Lossiemouth (155) who ran out a very smooth winner and produced a performance similar to 2023 winner Honeysuckle. That mare landed two Champion Hurdles following her first success in the Mares’ Hurdle in 2020 and post-race comments suggest connections could well send Lossiemouth down that route next year – she would be a welcome addition to the two mile scene.

Novice Hurdlers

A condensed finish to the Supreme – just ten lengths covered the first seven home – suggest a below-average renewal containing no real standouts, and that was reflected in Slade Steel’s rating of 151, the lowest for a Supreme winner since Cinders and Ashes in 2012. His performance did, however, underline the credentials of Ballyburn, the season’s standout novice by far, and the latter again looked a top prospect in routing his six rivals by upwards of thirteen lengths in the Gallagher twenty-four hours later. A fast time backed up the visual impression, and an initial rating of 163 is the highest achieved in the race this century.

British-trained runners were generally in the minority across the novice events over hurdles, though Golden Ace (139) was a popular home-trained winner of the Dawn Run, whilst The Jukebox Man (148) very nearly struck gold under a well-judged ride from the front in the Albert Bartlett, collared only in the final strides by another outsider, the Gordan Elliott-trained Stellar Story (149).

The Irish completed a clean sweep of the novice Grade 1 events courtesy of Majborough (150) in the Triumph, though the absence of long-time favourite Sir Gino (145), the year’s standout juvenile previously, weakened the race to some extent.

Official end-of-season ratings for all horses rated 150+ will be agreed between the British and Irish NH handicappers and published in the Anglo-Irish Jump Classifications in late-May.

Mullins notched up his fourth win in the last six years, and achieved his second back-to-back success with the same horse in that period. Al Boum Photo was no slouch as he showed when winning the race in 2019 and 2020, but Galopin des Champs is a better animal in my opinion. He was the highest-rated horse in training going in to the race on 179, mainly based on his demolition of Bravemansgame and co in the 2023 Gold Cup.

Although Galopin des Champs had endured a couple of blips in his next two starts, he looked the force of old when slamming his rivals at Leopardstown in December and February, and continued his fine form when cementing his place at the top of the tree on Friday. He probably wasn’t as visually impressive as the previous year but was always in control after coming through to challenge, and probably idled a little up the hill. Historic standards suggest low to mid 170s for this running and I have Galopin des Champs ‘only’ performing to 174, but the pre-race 179 obviously still stands.

Gerri Colombe plugged on gallantly for second, three and a half lengths behind the winner, and posted a personal best of 170, the same rating as Fastorslow who unseated before the race had really began.

The next horse home was last year’s Grand National winner Corach Rambler who stayed on very stoutly from way off the pace, and posted a new mark of 162 (from 159) which makes him 3lb ‘well in’ for the next renewal of that race in 4 weeks’ time. It was an excellent run and hopefully the tough race he had here won’t leave its mark in his quest for the Grand National again. Unsurprisingly, he went clear favourite straight after this race.

Ryanair Chase

A competitive looking renewal of the Ryanair Chase with only two pounds between the top four horses’ pre-race, two of which finished in the first three. The most interesting aspect to this year’s race looked to be that several of the leading contenders were dropping back in trip having been campaigned over 3 miles, amongst those Protektorat who had not run over this sort of trip since 2021. A keen going horse, he settled well on this occasion in behind the leaders before coming home strongly to record a decisive success from last year’s winner Envoi Allen. The latter had run to 164 in that renewal, and on first viewing he would seem to have run to a very similar level again this year in defeat.

Allaho (177) has produced two standout performances in this race in recent years, but aside from him a 5-year average winner of the Ryanair would come out at 168, whilst historical pre-race standards suggest a range of 164-170 for the winner. On a line through Envoi Allen, somewhere in the middle of that bracket seems likely for Protektorat. Conflated and Capodanno both ran on well dropping down in trip.

Michael Harris

Stayers Hurdle

Last year’s third, fourth and fifth, finished first, second and third this time around yet there is still a sense that we saw a somewhat overdue changing of the guard in the Stayers’ Hurdle. Dual winner, Flooring Porter was gallant in a bid to regain his crown, typically well-positioned in this relatively steadily run contest, but he was ultimately no match for the younger legs of Teahupoo from the final hurdle.

This seven-year-old, perhaps unlucky not to take the prize a year ago, won with authority. Kept fresh since taking a second consecutive Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse in early December, he returned to the biggest stage with a career best. A provisional rating of 165 surpasses the level achieved by runner-up Flooring Porter in either of his wins and is the highest winning figure since Paisley Park in 2019. Based on this performance, Teahupoo looks likely to prove the dominant force in this division in the short term at least.

James Norris

Champion Chase

The feature race on the second day of the Cheltenham festival was the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase. With the withdrawal of Jonbon, who was likely to be sent off as the second favourite, the race looked to be at the mercy of El Fabiolo. He was rated 9lbs and upwards clear of his rivals and started as the 2/9 favourite, but he made a couple of fiddly jumping mistakes early on before a heavy blunder at the fifth fence saw him pulled-up.

The race was won by Captain Guinness who beat Gentleman de Mee by 1½ lengths. They’d raced against each other at the Dublin Racing Festival on their latest starts where they finished 3rd and 4th behind El Fabiolo, beaten by 14½ lengths and 16¼ lengths respectively. For all that he is an admirable horse who usually turns up in all the big 2-mile chases, Captain Guinness was winning his first Grade 1 race on his 14th attempt at that level. He arrived here rated 162 and, while he might have eked out a career-best figure, this contest cannot be viewed as vintage form.

The lowest rated winners of this race this century have been Edredon Bleu (166) in 2000 and Put The Kettle On (159, but as a mare this converts to 166) in 2021. With the first two home being trained in Ireland I will have to consult my Irish colleagues before finalising a rating for the winner, but the likelihood is that Captain Guinness may well have recorded the lowest winning figure for this race in the last twenty-five years.

Chris Nash

State Man (169) looked head and shoulders above the opposition after landing all three of Ireland’s Grade 1 two miles races previously this season – not to mention his clear second to Constitution Hill in last year’s race – and he didn’t need to run near his best to justify skinny odds in what was a rather muddling affair.

A steady pace resulted in an overall time 1 second slower than the earlier Supreme (albeit State Man carried 3 lb more than Slade Steel), and the proximity of outsiders Luccia (140 pre-race, albeit not fully exposed) and nine-year-old Colonel Mustard (exposed in the mid-to-high 140s) restricts the bare form level. As such, it’s likely that State Man only had to run to a rating around the 160 mark in winning, which is a fair way below the level that would normally be expected in a Champion Hurdle – the average winning figure for the previous five renewals (with the 7lb mares’ allowance added back on) is 170.

Irish Point (159) gave State Man most to think about and clearly ran well, especially as a stronger gallop/more of a stamina test would have suited given his form over further.

As part of our commitment to being open and transparent, and following some of the media coverage regarding the handicapping of the ex-French, now Irish-trained Ocastle Des Mottes in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday 16 February, I thought this an appropriate time to reiterate the BHA policy with regard to the handicapping of such horses – namely those that have left France, entered training in either Great Britain or Ireland and on whom we only have their French form on which to base a rating.

By way of some background information, it is important to point out that French ratings are published in kilograms rather than pounds, as they are in Great Britain and Ireland. As with all departments’ processes and methodology, we regularly analyse whether the kg/lb conversion rate used is still appropriate and as a result of that we changed the standard BHA conversion over jumps from 2.2lb per kilo to a straight 2lb per kilo in the summer of 2021.

As with all handicapping decisions, however, the team has discretionary powers to stray from the standard conversion in certain situations when appropriate – more of that a little later.

With that in mind, the process of giving a rating is:

– Check the current French rating of the horse concerned and make standard 2lb/1kg conversion.

– Then check the form of the horse concerned and see if it has either competed against or can be tied in with other ex-French trained horses who have been exported to Great Britain or Ireland and whose form may have settled at a certain level. This may persuade the handicapper to divert from the standard conversion.

– Check to see if the horse concerned has either competed against or can be tied in with British or Irish trained runners in France. Again, this may persuade the handicapper to divert from the standard conversion.

– As with any other horse entered for a British jumps handicap – wherever it may be trained – if we don’t feel there is sufficient evidence on which to rate the horse as accurately as we feel appropriate, we will decline to rate it.

In the instance of Ocastle Des Mottes the handicappers could find no reason to divert from the standard conversion for this horse, so he was allotted a BHA mark of 133 (66.5kg x 2).

One of the main talking points in the lead up to the Betfair Hurdle was the discrepancy between the mark published for Ocastle Des Mottes between the BHA handicappers (133) and the Irish handicapper (139: now down to 137 after Newbury). It is common knowledge that there are differences not only in the levels of the two jumps files in GB and Ireland but also in certain areas of methodology – we acknowledge that they have a slightly different conversion rate, that is obviously entirely their call and works for them.

Finally, the tables below show the most recent post-conversion review analysis (up to and including Monday 5 February 2024) on the performance of ex-French trained jumpers on their debuts in British handicaps – the first representing handicap hurdles, the second handicap chases.

Performance of French Imports in GB Handicap Hurdles On GB Debut

Performance of French Imports in GB Handicap Chases On GB Debut

It is clear to see that the current BHA conversion rate is not resulting in overperformance in handicap hurdles, if anything they are underperforming, whilst the figures for handicap chases are largely where we would want them with a Win Impact Value of 1.03.

As has become standard, we will continue to monitor the data closely in an effort to make sure all horses are fairly treated whatever their background when running in our handicaps. We will review the current kg/lb conversion rate again at the end of the current jumps season to make sure it is still appropriate in terms of achieving the above.

Dominic Gardiner-Hill, BHA Head of Handicapping

Corach Rambler looked a worthy favourite going in given he was a whopping 10lbs well in following his second successive triumph in the Ultima Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival the previous month, and he made the most of that advantage in no uncertain manner.

Its hard to envisage the race going anymore smoothly for Corach Rambler. Always well placed and jumping beautifully, he smoothly moved closer to the pace as the runners began to turn in, joined pacesetter Mister Coffey at the last and soon quickened away in devastating style. As is his want, Corach Rambler began to doss once in front and a near 10 lengths margin (when still not anywhere near the end of his tether) was whittled down to two and a quarter lengths by the line as the much more negatively ridden Vanillier (3lbs well in following a good run the time before) stayed on strongly late, along with several others not far behind. In my opinion, the extra 10lbs he should have carried would not have stopped Corach Rambler winning, such was the dominance of his performance and he looks far from exposed in the staying chase sphere. His new rating could well be pushing near the 160 area and his prospects remain very bright indeed.

Martin Greenwood

Of the five runners, Shishkin had easily the best form on show from this season, but had stamina to prove on his first attempt at around 3m and had to put a disappointing second at Cheltenham behind him. With A Plus Tard again looking a shadow of the horse that exploded up the Cheltenham hill just over a year ago, this left the error-prone, but unexposed Ahoy Senor to put up the stiffest resistance to the favourite. Bowling along and not blemish free as usual, Ahoy Senor had briefly seemed to have burnt Shishkin off by the time they hit the home straight. However the warning signs were out for him by the last as Shishkin’s resilience kicked in, and the favourite collared the brave Ahoy Senor close home.

This is obviously a trappy contest to rate, with Shishkin 173 (based on his Ascot win) and Ahoy Senor 166 going in. An average winner of this race over the recent years is 172, and the best 2nd place effort in that time period was 169. With that in mind, I have Shishkin a shade below his pre-race rating but left on 173, while Ahoy Senor’s new rating is now 169, while acknowledging I have scope to rate the latter a bit higher down the line strictly based on the winner.

William Hill Aintree Hurdle, Andrew Mealor

By his own exalted standards, Constitution Hill’s performance in landing a sixth Grade 1 success in the William Hill Aintree Hurdle was relatively unspectacular. Nicky Henderson’s charge was asked to win the race and no more, with Nico de Boinville content to just nudge the gelding out in a race that developed into a dash from three out after Constitution Hill had dictated a very modest gallop trying the trip for the first time (slow overall time).

A performance figure in the mid-160s – underpinned by the previous form of Sharjah and Zanahiyr and factoring in some extra for ease of victory – betters recent average renewals of the Aintree Hurdle but sits below the 169 figures achieved by Buveur d’Air and Jezki, the two best performances in the race since the turn of the century.

Constitution Hill stays on his pre-race mark of 175, a figure recorded in the Champion Hurdle (when Zanahiyr was beaten thirteen lengths in third), and that race remains the best guide to his outstanding merit.

Marsh Melling Chase, Michael Harris

Pic D’Orhy had bypassed Cheltenham to target Aintree and a sure footed performance saw him collect his first Grade 1 success in the Marsh Melling Chase. Having tracked leader Minella Drama, he was always travelling strongly down the inside and saw his race out well to see off a staying on Fakir D’oudairies, who himself left his below par effort at Ascot behind him in his bid to win this race for the third successive year.

In terms of ratings, pre-race standards suggests a range of 162-165, and whilst it seems likely Pic D’Orhy has run right up to his best of 162 it may be that he has not had to improve much, if at all, to beat his rivals on the day. Minella Drama took the step up in grade in his stride and put in a career best performance, whilst the three horses who went to Cheltenham, most notably Hitman, all struggled to run up to form on the day.

JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle, James Norris

Once again, defying age and expectation, Sire Du Berlais won the Liverpool Hurdle in ultimately convincing style. Flooring Porter set a relentless pace and though at various junctures it looked just the opposite, this suited last month’s Stayers’ Hurdle winner. Having been on and off the bridle, Sire Du Berlais powered past rivals in the straight and the writing was on the wall as he loomed up alongside Marie’s Rock at the last.

A figure of 162 matches the rating he achieved in this race last year and at 11-years-old Sire Du Berlais continues to run right up to his best. Gordon Elliott’s largely unheralded hurdler has quietly compiled an enviable CV and now sits on top of the staying division.

Previous handicap qualification criteria required that horses became eligible for a rating either after three runs, or after their second start if a winner on debut. But for races from 1 April 2023, a third dimension will be added on a 12-month trial basis, following approval by the industry’s Racing Group.

Graeme Smith
Handicap Team Leader

This will allow for horses beaten on their first start but winning their second race to be allotted a rating, providing this is at a level of 77 or lower. That rating will enable the horse to run in a Class 5 or 6 handicap or classified race on its third start, but not at Class 4 level or above.

The first tranche of horses that have fulfilled these criteria have had a rating allotted and published today (23 March) on the Announcements section of Racing Admin.

This change follows a proposal from the National Trainers Federation (NTF), which felt that there were horses that were able to win their second start but weren’t good enough to compete in another novice under a penalty, and therefore that third novice run wasn’t desirable.

From 1 April, those horses will be able to enter the handicap system at an earlier stage; the justification being that they have already shown their hand to a degree in winning.

However, as they will be handicapped on less evidence than most, it was felt important to provide this opportunity only for those horses that trainers feel really need the help, and to limit their participation to lower grade races.

Following statistical analysis, a rating ceiling of 77 was agreed as a natural fit, as that is the highest rating from which a horse can enter a Class 5 handicap.

When handicapping lightly raced horses, handicapping decisions are taken on relatively limited evidence. Good handicapping practice requires those decisions to be revisited as subsequent evidence emerges, i.e. horses from those races run again.

For this reason, it is envisaged that some horses that qualify initially via this new route may become ineligible for handicaps if their form proves stronger than first rated and their mark rises above the 77 ceiling. There will also be cases that work in reverse. These amendments will be made within the usual weekly timeframe and ratings updated on Tuesday morning.

We are, as ever, grateful to owners and trainers for their patience, support and understanding while these processes are followed.

Chasers

The star performance among the established chasers was clearly Galopin Des Champs who recorded a figure of 178 in landing what looked a strong renewal of the Gold Cup. That rating has been bettered only by A Plus Tard (180 last year) among recent winners of chasing’s blue riband and he’s young enough to think that sort of figure won’t prove his limit.

Bravemansgame (172) was ultimately comfortably held in second but ran a fine race all the same, confirming his status as the best staying chaser on this side of the Irish Sea following his King George success.

Energumene (175) and Envoi Allen (164) made it a clean sweep for Ireland in the championship events over fences.

With Edwardstone (170) and Editeur Du Gite (166) both failing to give their running, Energumene was left with a fairly straightforward task in the Champion Chase and likely didn’t need to better his 2022 performance in the race to bring up a notable double.

The underperformance of hot favourite Shishkin (down 1 lb to 173) was the main talking point after the Ryanair and an overall bunched finish allied to the prior form of the other principals suggests a below-par renewal, for all Envoi Allen was landing a noteworthy third Festival success.

Novice Chasers

British runners fared better in the novice events, landing two of the Grade 1s, though El Fabiolo’s success over Jonbon in the Arkle – which earned him a rating of 164 – was the standout performance in the novice ranks.

The Real Whacker and Sam Twiston Davies lead the way in The Brown Advisory Novices’ Steeple Chase

The Real Whacker – one of three winners from Northern-based British yards over the four days – maintained his unbeaten record over fences in the Brown Advisory, just holding off hot favourite Gerri Colombe. Both recorded figures of 159 on the day, which has them several lbs off the best recent winners of this race (for comparison L’Homme Presse ran to 164 in the 2022 renewal).

A well-judged ride from the front in a steadily-run race aided Stage Star (155) who ran out a decisive winner all the same in the Turners, though Mighty Potter still remains the highest rated in that division on 160 courtesy of his earlier wins at Fairyhouse and Leopardstown, form franked by Gaillard Du Mesnil’s (154) success in the National Hunt Chase.

Hurdlers

Constitution Hill was sent off the shortest price favourite in Champion Hurdle history and gave his supporters very few anxious moments with a flawless performance as he sauntered nine lengths clear of State Man and co.

In a race not really run in a fashion conducive to achieving a big rating (the time was only just over a length quicker than the Supreme from earlier the same day), Constitution Hill (175) still produced a performance bettered only by Istabraq and Faugheen among top two milers since the Anglo-Irish classification were first published in 1999-2000. With just six runs and less than two seasons of racing behind him, the strong likelihood is that Constitution Hill can produce a bigger effort under the right circumstances – as it is, this was the best performance by a British-trained hurdler this century.

There were emotional scenes forty minutes later when Honeysuckle (155) brought the house down with a second success in the Mares’ Hurdle and fourth festival success of what has been a stellar career. A steady pace counted against some on the day, notably Marie’s Rock and Epatante, and it was another with previous Festival form, 2022 Mares’ Novice winner Love Envoi (153), who gave Honeysuckle most to think about under a well-judged ride from the front.

The theme of prior form at the meeting counting for plenty was also evident in the Stayers’ Hurdle won by 33/1-shot Sire du Berlais, whose previous runs at the Festival included two wins in the Pertemps and a second in this race. The proximity of another outsider in Dashel Drasher (159) suggests this wasn’t a vintage renewal by any means and a rating of 160 for Sire du Berlais is the joint-lowest achieved by a Stayers’ Hurdle winner in recent years, alongside 2020 winner Lisnagar Oscar.

Novice Hurdlers

The standout performer in the novice hurdle ranks was undoubtedly Impaire Et Passe (159) who put stablemate Gaelic Warrior (154) and eight others to the sword in impressive fashion in the Ballymore, producing a performance bettered only by Envoi Allen in the race in recent times.

It was hard to take quite as high a view of the Supreme form, with the first nine home covered by just twelve and a half lengths, albeit in a time that matched up well to the other two mile races on day one. Marine Nationale (156) still impressed in victory, however, and he clearly has plenty of scope for further improvement after just three runs over hurdles.

The theme of Irish domination in the novice events over hurdles continued in the Triumph won by Lossiemouth (144), but the home team struck back in the Albert Bartlett courtesy of Stay Away Fay (148) who held off the best of the Irish with a strong staying performance.

End-of-season ratings for all horses rated 150+ will be agreed between the British and Irish NH handicappers and published in the Anglo-Irish Jump Classifications in late-May.